Dear readers,
Hope the recent market weakness did not catch you off guard. Personally, the recent market drop didn’t come as a surprise as I have been positioned rather nicely for this. I have taken the opportunity to increase my percentage invested from 15% on 22 Apr 2016 to approximately 50%.
Read on to find out why.
S&P500 Index
Just to recap what I have mentioned on 22 Apr 2016 (see here), I wrote “Although S&P500 formed a new five-month high on 20 Apr 2016, indicators such as MACD and RSI have exhibited bearish divergences. In my opinion, although the medium term trend continues to be up, as evidenced by the rising exponential moving averages (“EMAs”), S&P500 may consolidate between 2,020 – 2,120. It is difficult to envisage S&P500 may breach the all-time high of 2,135 given the current chart outlook.”
–> S&P500 slid 35 points, or 1.7% from 2,092 on 22 Apr 2016 to close at 2,057 on 6 May 2016. It tested the support level of 2,040 – 2,043 which I mentioned to some clients who trade actively in the U.S. markets on 4 May evening.
Based on Chart 1 below, RSI has slipped from 63.2 on 22 Apr 2016 to close at 47.4 on 6 May 2016. ADX has decreased from 20.8 on 22 Apr 2016 to close at 17.5, indicative of a lack of trend. In my opinion, although market sentiment seems to have taken a turn for the worse, it is likely that there may be a small technical rebound in the near term. In addition, it is unlikely that S&P500 may break the strong support 2,018 – 2,025 in the next one week. However, S&P500 is likely to meet strong resistance around 2,080 – 2,100 in this short term technical rebound.
Near term supports: 2,039 – 2,044 / 2,018 – 2,025 / 1,990
Near term resistances are around 2,068 / 2,080 / 2,097
Chart 1: S&P500 – small technical rebound likely but unlikely to breach 2,080 – 2,100
Source: CIMB chart as of 6 May 2016
Hang Seng Index
On 22 Apr 2016, I mentioned that “although Hang Seng chart looks bullish, the weak ADX indicates a lack of trend. A clearer signal is to observe whether Hang Seng can stage a sustained breach above its 200D EMA, which is currently at 21,649. (It is noteworthy that Hang Seng has not made a sustained breach above its 200D EMA since 6 Jul 2015.) A sustained break below 20,500 negates the bullish tinge in the chart.”
–> Hang Seng tested the 200D EMA on 21 Apr 2016 and made another attempt on 28 Apr 2016 but failed to make a sustained breach above it. Profit taking ensued and took the index from a high of 21,654 on 28 Apr 2016 to close 1,544 points or 7.1% lower to 20,110 on 6 May 2016.
Based on Chart 2 below, Hang Seng broke below 20,500 which negated the bullish tinge in the chart. 21D, 50D and 100D EMA have turned down. Fortunately, there is no formation of death cross at the moment and the ADX remains at a low level of 18.0, which is lower than the 19.6 level on 22 Apr 2016. Given the current chart outlook, Hang Seng is likely to trade within the range of 19,500 – 21,000 in the next couple of weeks. A sustained break below 19,500 is bearish for the chart.
Near term supports: 19,960 / 19,780 / 19,420 – 19,560
Near term resistances: 20,635 – 20,670 / 20,787 – 20,841 / 21,000
Chart 2: Hang Seng – previous bullish tinge negated; likely range trade 19,500 – 21,000
Source: CIMB chart as of 6 May 2016
STI Index
On 22 Apr 2016, I wrote that
1. “Although STI has closed above its 200D EMA for seven consecutive trading days, this does not necessarily mean the long term trend for STI has reversed. In my opinion, I prefer to be prudent and prefer to see the following in the next two weeks:
a) STI should trade above its 200D EMA for the next two weeks;
b) 200D EMA should be rising over time. It is almost flat for now;
c) Both RSI and MACD have exhibited bearish divergences which is a concern.”
–> STI immediately closed below its 200D EMA on 25 Apr 2016, the next working day after my write-up and tumbled another 200 points for the next two weeks.
2) A break below 2,880 negates the bullish tinge in the chart.
–> This is spot on as the break below 2,880 accelerated the market slump. Since 20 Apr 2016, STI has fallen 11 out of 12 sessions. Since 22 Apr 2016, STI has fallen for 10 consecutive trading days with a drop amounting to 209 points, or 7.1% from 2,940 to 2,731 on 6 May 2016.
On 4 May night, I published a write-up on some of the stocks sorted by the highest potential capital upside. Readers who are interested can refer to here.
On 6 May morning, I have followed up with an email to all my clients to notify them that there is likely to be a technical rebound in the near term. In addition, there may be some blue chip companies for them to take a closer look in view of the recent share price weakness.
Based on Chart 3 below RSI closed at 30.3, the lowest since 28 Jan 2016. My personal opinion is that STI is likely to have limited near term downside in the next one week. Amid the continuous falls, there is likely to be some technical rebound in the near term. In the event of a rebound, STI is likely to find resistance at 2,818 – 2,825 and strong resistance at 2,860 – 2,885.
Near term supports: 2,713 / 2,695 / 2,680 – 2,682
Near term resistances: 2,775 / 2,791 / 2,818 – 2,825
Chart 3: STI – limited near term downside; likely technical rebound soon
Source: CIMB chart as 6 May 2016
FTSE ST Small Cap Index (“FSTS”)
On 22 Apr 2016, I wrote that “continues to consolidate within the range 391 – 405. A break below / above 391 / 405 points to a measured technical target of 377 / 419 respectively.”
–> FSTS continued to trade within the range 391 – 405. It touched a high of 403 on 28 Apr 2016 before closing 9 points lower, or 2.2% to 394 on 6 May 2016.
Based on Chart 4 below, 21D, 50D and 100D EMAs have turned downwards. In the next two weeks, FSTS is likely to consolidate between the range 391 – 401. A break below / above 391 / 405 points to a measured technical target of 377 / 419 respectively with the latter (i.e. bullish break above 405) being very unlikely.
Near term supports are at 391 / 384 / 377.
Near term resistances are at 397 – 399 / 401 / 405
Chart 4: FSTS – likely to face strong resistance 397 – 401
Source: CIMB chart as of 6 May 2016
Conclusion
I have been extremely busy in the past fortnight (as evidenced by the number of write-ups published on my blog). In terms of trading, I was positioned nicely around 15% invested as of 22 Apr 2016. Thus, I managed to accumulate on the weakness seen in the past two weeks and have raised my percentage invested to around 50% ahead of the results period. In the next two weeks, I am likely to (be busier) by doing frequent trades and may raise my percentage invested temporarily to more than 50%. Nevertheless, I aim to reduce my percentage invested to between 30 – 50% at the end of May.
Readers can refer to my write-ups below why I am cautious in the next 1 – 2 months and to keep my % invested to 30 – 50%.
a) Ernest’s market outlook 22 Apr 2016 (click here);
b) Ernest’s market outlook 8 Apr 2016 (click here)
As mentioned previously, readers who wish to be notified of my write-ups and / or informative emails, they can consider to sign up at http://ernest15percent.com so as to be included in my mailing list. However, this reader’s mailing list has a one or two-day lag time as I will (naturally) send information (more information, more emails with more details) to my clients first. For readers who wish to enquire on being my client, they can consider to leave their contacts here http://ernest15percent.com/index.php/about-me/
Lastly, many new clients have asked me how I screen and decide which companies to take a closer look / write. To understand more about my basis of deciding which companies to write, you can download a copy of my eBook available on my website here.
P.S: Do note that as I am a full time remisier, I can change my equity allocation fast to capitalize on the markets’ movements.
Disclaimer
Please refer to the disclaimer here