Nasdaq chart 27 Sep 19

Nasdaq – potential bearish head and shoulders formation in the making? (29 Sep 19)

With reference to my earlier write-up (click HERE) titled “S&P500 at 2,979 – limited potential upside (8 Sep 19)”, S&P500 touched intraday highs of 3,021 – 3,022 on 12 Sep 2019 and 19 Sep 2019 but it was still lower than the record intraday high of 3,028 on 26 July 2019. S&P500 closed at 2,962 on 27 Sep 2019. Hang Seng and STI touch one-month intraday highs on 13 Sep 2019 before profit taking sets in. October is likely a volatile month ahead given (just to cite a few examples) more news on trade talks (e.g. U.S vs China; U.S. […]

Chart 3_S&P500 chart 6 Sep 19

S&P500 at 2,979 – limited potential upside (8 Sep 19)

With reference to my earlier write-up (click HERE) titled “Why am I cautious going into July…”, July was coincidentally the peak for S&P500. Hang Seng touched an intraday high of 29,008 on 4 Jul 2019 before slumping 4,108 points to an intraday low of 24,900 on 15 Aug 2019 (Hang Seng closed at 26,691 on 6 Sep 2019.) Personally, given the current market levels and information, I am not comfortable to raise my current percentage invested from 53% to significant levels (say >80%). Why am I cautious in the market? Do read on…   Factors supporting my cautious basis Above […]

STI chart as of 27 Mar 19

S&P500 logged its largest one day fall since Jan. Buy more, or head to the exit? (27 Mar 2019)

Dear readers, Last Fri, S&P500 logged its largest one day fall since 3 Jan 2019, due in part to the weak European PMI and the yield curve inversion between U.S. 3-month bill and 10-year note yields. At the time of writing this, Dow closed 0.55% higher on Tues as U.S. 10 year bond yields stabilise. Is last Fri’s fall the precursor to something more serious? Or it is a false alarm?   First things first, what are the reasons for the sharp rally since late Dec? S&P500 has rallied approximately 20.1%, or 471 points from the intra-day low of 2,347 […]

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Caution ahead? Most market strategists think so… (26 Aug 2016)

Dear readers, Various foreign houses such as Bank of America, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs and UBS etc. are advocating caution in the markets ahead. Some of the commonly cited reasons are valuations; still weak corporate results; U.S. election etc. To be balanced, Morgan Stanley in its 12 Aug 2016 write-up said they continue to be bullish on equities. As you are aware, I operate my portfolio on a short term basis. Based on my views in my previous week market write-up dated 19 Aug 2016 (click HERE), I have reduced my equity allocation from 82% on 19 Aug 2016 to […]