STI chart as of 13 Jan 17

Ernest’s market outlook (13 Jan 17)

Dear all, STI performs to my expectations as it heads towards 3,040 (my eventual technical measured target price which I mentioned previously). What’s next? For the charts analysis below, you can cross – reference to my market outlook sent on 6 Jan 17 HERE. (Actually, my bi weekly market update should be done next week. However, I noticed that the market seems to be reaching some near-term potential resistances. Hence, I decided to do a market update. Due to time constraints, I did not put in Hang Seng analysis for this issue)   S&P500 Based on Chart 1 below, it […]

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Ernest’s market outlook (6 Jan 2017)

Dear readers, Two weeks ago, I mentioned that although Hang Seng is in a downtrend, it may rebound as oversold pressures build. Hang Seng jumped 928 points in the past two weeks. What lies ahead?   S&P500 Index Just to recap what I have mentioned on 23 Dec 2016 (see HERE), I wrote “S&P500 is consolidating its gains for the past two weeks. It continues to be on a clear uptrend amid rising exponential moving averages (“EMAs”). ADX continues to rise from 36 on 9 Dec 2016 to 39 on 23 Dec 2016 on the backdrop of positive placed directional […]

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Ernest’s market outlook (23 Dec 16)

Dear readers, Two weeks ago, I mentioned that there is likely to be profit taking on the STI. STI has since fallen 85 points, or 2.9%. What lies ahead?   S&P500 Index Just to recap what I have mentioned on 9 Dec 2016 (see HERE), I wrote “S&P500 is on a clear uptrend amid rising EMAs and ADX, on the backdrop of positive placed directional indicators (“DIs”). RSI closed around 77 on 9 Dec 2016. This is overbought and at a 3-year high. Indicators such as OBV, MACD and MFI continue to exhibit bearish divergence with price. Although bearish divergences […]

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Ernest’s market outlook (9 Dec 16)

Dear readers, STI has hit highs last seen on Apr and Jul 2016, powered by our local banks. Can this sustain? Read on for more.   S&P500 Index Just to recap what I have mentioned on 25 Nov 2016 (see HERE), I wrote “S&P500 is on a clear uptrend. All the exponential moving averages (“EMAs”) are rising with 21D EMA forming golden cross with 50D EMA on 10 Nov 2016. Amid positive placed directional indicators (“DIs”), ADX continues to move higher from 28 on 11 Nov 2016 to 31 on 25 Nov 2016. It is noteworthy that indicators such as […]

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Ernest’s market outlook (25 Nov 16)

Dear readers, S&P500 hits record high! Will STI follow suit? Read on for more.   S&P500 Index Just to recap what I have mentioned on 11 Nov 2016 (see HERE), I wrote “S&P500, after closing below its 100D exponential moving average (“EMA”) for six consecutive days, surged with volume and closed above its 100D EMA (currently 2,137) for five consecutive days. 21D EMA has just formed a golden cross with 50D EMA on 10 Nov 2016. Another positive feature is that the directional indicators (“DIs”) have turned positive with ADX closing at 28. S&P500 has closed above 2,157 for three […]

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Trading is easy, isn’t it? [20 Nov 16] (Part 1)

If somebody says his profession is a trader, what will you immediately think of? I believe most people would immediately flash across thoughts of fine dining, fast cars and effortless work. Is this really the life of a trader? If it is so easy, why don’t we all jump onto the “trader” bandwagon? In my opinion, trading or punting without consistent profits and plans is easy but it is not recommended. It is akin to gambling. If we are referring to trading as a consistent means of earning our keep, it is not easy. Ask any professional trader and nine […]

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Ernest’s market outlook (11 Nov 16)

Dear readers, Notwithstanding most experts’ dire predictions that Dow may plunge as much as 10% on Trump’s win, Dow closed at a record high AFTER Trump’s win! Read on for more.   S&P500 Index Just to recap what I have mentioned on 28 Oct 2016 (see HERE), I wrote “S&P500 closed below 100D EMA (currently 2,136) yesterday. As mentioned previously, S&P500 has not closed below its 100D EMA for three consecutive trading days since 1 Mar 2016. Thus, the price action around its 100D EMA is worth watching. After forming a death cross, 21D EMA is moving apart from 50D […]

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Ernest’s market outlook (28 Oct 16)

Dear readers, Notwithstanding my cautious stance in the general market, I have raised my allocation from 35% on 14 Oct 2016 to around 89% on 28 Oct 16 on stocks with potential near term catalysts. Read on my technical outlook on the markets.   S&P500 Index Just to recap what I have mentioned on 14 Oct 2016 (see HERE), I wrote “it is alarming to see that 21D and 50D exponential moving averages (“EMAs) are trending lower with 21D EMA forming a death cross with 50D EMA. 100D EMA started to turn flat and S&P500 closed below 100D EMA yesterday. […]

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Ernest’s market outlook (14 Oct 16)

Dear readers, Although my market outlook is a biweekly issue, the technical outlook for some technical indices has deteriorated and I view it timely to update my clients. See below.   S&P500 Index Just to recap what I have mentioned on 7 Oct 2016 (see HERE), I wrote “all the exponential moving averages (“EMAs) are converging and trending higher. ADX has slipped from 22 on 23 Sep 2016 to 20 on 7 Oct 2016, indicative of a lack of trend. Indicators are neutral and stuck in a range. Although the trend continues to be an uptrend until proven otherwise, my […]

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Ernest’s market outlook (7 Oct 16)

Dear readers, The recent selective small cap rally seems to be as hot as the China property market! For those who have not benefitted in the recent selective market rally, is it too late to jump on the bandwagon now? Let us take a look at the various broad market indices first.   S&P500 Index Just to recap what I have mentioned on 23 Sep 2016 (see HERE), I wrote “S&P500’s volatility has increased since 9 Sep 2016. RSI has increased around 32 on 9 Sep 2016 to 52 (a neutral level) on 23 Sep 2016. All the exponential moving […]