Table 1_Top five stocks with the highest estimated total potential returns 21 Mar 18

S&P500 – closed below its 200D EMA – a 1st since Nov 2016! (23 Mar 18)

Dear all, Previously, I mentioned in my write-up dated 21 Mar that I am avoiding the event risk of the U.S. tariff package against Chinese (click HERE). This proves timely as S&P500 fell 129 points, or 4.7% from 2,717 on 20 Mar to close 2,588 on 23 Mar. At 2,588, S&P500 has made its first close below its 200D exponential moving average (“EMA”) since Nov 2016. Why and how is this significant?  During the sharp 10% drop in the first part of Feb 2018, S&P500 has not closed below its 200D EMA. Furthermore, most technical analysts are watching this level […]

STI chart as of 13 Jan 17

Ernest’s market outlook (13 Jan 17)

Dear all, STI performs to my expectations as it heads towards 3,040 (my eventual technical measured target price which I mentioned previously). What’s next? For the charts analysis below, you can cross – reference to my market outlook sent on 6 Jan 17 HERE. (Actually, my bi weekly market update should be done next week. However, I noticed that the market seems to be reaching some near-term potential resistances. Hence, I decided to do a market update. Due to time constraints, I did not put in Hang Seng analysis for this issue)   S&P500 Based on Chart 1 below, it […]

sti-chart-as-of-28-oct-16

Ernest’s market outlook (28 Oct 16)

Dear readers, Notwithstanding my cautious stance in the general market, I have raised my allocation from 35% on 14 Oct 2016 to around 89% on 28 Oct 16 on stocks with potential near term catalysts. Read on my technical outlook on the markets.   S&P500 Index Just to recap what I have mentioned on 14 Oct 2016 (see HERE), I wrote “it is alarming to see that 21D and 50D exponential moving averages (“EMAs) are trending lower with 21D EMA forming a death cross with 50D EMA. 100D EMA started to turn flat and S&P500 closed below 100D EMA yesterday. […]

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Ernest’s market outlook (7 Oct 16)

Dear readers, The recent selective small cap rally seems to be as hot as the China property market! For those who have not benefitted in the recent selective market rally, is it too late to jump on the bandwagon now? Let us take a look at the various broad market indices first.   S&P500 Index Just to recap what I have mentioned on 23 Sep 2016 (see HERE), I wrote “S&P500’s volatility has increased since 9 Sep 2016. RSI has increased around 32 on 9 Sep 2016 to 52 (a neutral level) on 23 Sep 2016. All the exponential moving […]

STI chart as of 22 Jul 16

Ernest’s market outlook (22 Jul 16)

Dear readers, Markets have continued to rally with the U.S indices clocking in a fourth consecutive weekly gain. Will the markets continue to defy gravity to reach new highs? Read on for more.   S&P500 Index Just to recap what I have mentioned on 8 Jul 2016 (see HERE), I wrote “Given the low ADX, bearish divergences between price and OBV, MACD and RSI, it is unlikely that S&P500 may stage a sustainable rally above an intraday all time high of 2,135 on 20 May 2015.” –> On the contrary, S&P500 breached 2,135 and stayed above the level for the […]