Markets – diverging signs from technicals and fundamentals. What should we do? (4 Apr 2022)

Dear all March has been a roller coaster month. Hong Kong market, represented by Hang Seng index touched multi-year lows around 14-15 Mar and has rebounded approximately 21% from the intraday lows. S&P500 performed well too with a third consecutive weekly rise. With reference to my writeup (click HERE) published on 6 Mar 2022, I mentioned that a) Odds are likely of a downward push first I mentioned that based on chart, odds are higher for a downwards move for both S&P500 and STI, to retest the previous support around 4,115 – 4,222 and 3,138 – 3,200 (with 3,175 a […]

AEM enters bear market despite analysts’ positive calls. What gives? (20 Feb 22)

Dear all AEM has fallen 21% from an intraday high of $5.37 on 14 Dec 2021 to close $4.25 on 18 Feb 2022. What has happened in the last two months to warrant such falls? Based on Bloomberg, average analyst target price is around $6.72, representing a potential capital upside of around 58%. Is this the bottom for AEM, or will it fall further? Personally, I think AEM is worth a closer look at $4.20 – 4.30 region. Let’s take a look at its investment merits and risks.   First things first, what does AEM do? According to its company […]

GSS Energy looks interesting; key level for potential bullish breakout is at $0.075 (27 Sep 2021)

Dear all Of late, GSS Energy (“GSS”) has caught my attention. It has dipped from an intraday high of $0.083 on 17 Sep 2021 and has weakened to $0.072 on 24 Sep 2021. This weakness may be attributed to profit taking and contra players exiting or rolling their positions. 24 Sep is T+5 of its high-volume day on 17 Sep. My personal guess is that most of the contra players may have already exited (i.e., selling may have been largely exhausted). It may be time to relook into GSS Energy. Let’s take a look.   Basis a) E mobility business […]

STI – to head towards 3,390 points in 1Q2020? (25 Dec 19)

Merry Xmas! As we approach end 2019, most market strategists are putting their market estimates for end 2020. Although I do not profess to be in the league of these market strategists, just for fun, I am expecting STI to head towards 3,390 in 1Q2020. STI closed at 3,222 on 24 Dec 2019. I have outlined my basis and the risks involved.   Factors for my bullish basis a) Chart looks positive after bullish break Based on Chart 1 below, STI has staged a bullish break above its flag formation on 12 Dec 2019. Notwithstanding below average volume for the […]

Nasdaq – potential bearish head and shoulders formation in the making? (29 Sep 19)

With reference to my earlier write-up (click HERE) titled “S&P500 at 2,979 – limited potential upside (8 Sep 19)”, S&P500 touched intraday highs of 3,021 – 3,022 on 12 Sep 2019 and 19 Sep 2019 but it was still lower than the record intraday high of 3,028 on 26 July 2019. S&P500 closed at 2,962 on 27 Sep 2019. Hang Seng and STI touch one-month intraday highs on 13 Sep 2019 before profit taking sets in. October is likely a volatile month ahead given (just to cite a few examples) more news on trade talks (e.g. U.S vs China; U.S. […]

S&P500 at 2,979 – limited potential upside (8 Sep 19)

With reference to my earlier write-up (click HERE) titled “Why am I cautious going into July…”, July was coincidentally the peak for S&P500. Hang Seng touched an intraday high of 29,008 on 4 Jul 2019 before slumping 4,108 points to an intraday low of 24,900 on 15 Aug 2019 (Hang Seng closed at 26,691 on 6 Sep 2019.) Personally, given the current market levels and information, I am not comfortable to raise my current percentage invested from 53% to significant levels (say >80%). Why am I cautious in the market? Do read on…   Factors supporting my cautious basis Above […]