Chart 3_S&P500 oversold

S&P500 has slumped 13.7% in Dec, largest percentage fall since 1931! Has the bull market ended? (23 Dec 18)

Dear all After hitting an intra-day high of 2,941 on 21 Sep 2018, S&P500 has tumbled 17.9% or 525 points to close 2,416 on 21 Dec 2018. In fact, S&P500 has just logged the worst monthly performance in Dec since 1931! Dow has also fallen 3,535 points from the intraday high of 25,980 on 3 Dec 2018 and 4,507 points from the intraday high of 26,952 on 3 Oct 2018. What is happening? Is Armageddon coming?   Most things have not changed since 21 Sep, except for… In Sep, when S&P500 hit 2,940, the usual concerns were also there, namely […]

U.S. indices monthly performance since 1928

S&P500, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 hit records, time to switch to underperforming markets? (24 Aug 18)

Dear all, S&P500, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 hit records last Friday with S&P500 closing at 2,875. However, our STI has dropped 11.8% after hitting a decade high of 3,642 on 2 May 2018. Hang Seng has also tumbled 17.4% after hitting a high of 33,484 on 29 Jan 2018. Is this the time to switch out of the U.S. markets and plough it back to STI and Hang Seng? This seems to be the question on most investors’ minds as I am also posed this question during a live interview on Money FM89.3 on last Thursday. Let’s take a closer […]

S&P500 chart as of 18 Aug 17

Ernest’s market opinion (18 Aug 17)

Dear all Our STI has broken a one-month trading range of around 3,288 – 3,348. Where will STI and the other indices go from here?   S&P500 last closed 2,426 Based on Chart 1 below, although 20D exponential moving average (“EMA”) is trending lower, the other EMAs, namely 50D, 100D and 200D EMA are still trending up. RSI closed at 37.2. Since 7 Nov 2016, the lowest RSI was around 35.9 on 10 Apr 2017. Although the directional indicators (“DIs”) are negatively placed, ADX is still at a low 12.2 which is indicative of a trendless market. My personal view […]


Ernest’s market outlook (28 Oct 16)

Dear readers, Notwithstanding my cautious stance in the general market, I have raised my allocation from 35% on 14 Oct 2016 to around 89% on 28 Oct 16 on stocks with potential near term catalysts. Read on my technical outlook on the markets.   S&P500 Index Just to recap what I have mentioned on 14 Oct 2016 (see HERE), I wrote “it is alarming to see that 21D and 50D exponential moving averages (“EMAs) are trending lower with 21D EMA forming a death cross with 50D EMA. 100D EMA started to turn flat and S&P500 closed below 100D EMA yesterday. […]


Ernest’s market outlook (9 Sep 16)

Dear readers, S&P500 finally broke the (one month plus) tight trading range 2,157 – 2,194 with a 2.5% drop yesterday. What’s next? Read on for more.   S&P500 Index Just to recap what I have mentioned on 19 Aug 2016 (see HERE), I wrote “S&P500’s EMAs continue to move higher with a constant degree of separation which is a positive development. However, I am (increasingly) wary of two main factors namely, A) ADX continues to decline from 17.1 on 5 Aug 2016 to 15.9 on 19 Aug 2016, indicative of a lack of trend. B) Indicators such as MACD, MFI […]