Ernest’s market opinion (18 Aug 17)

Dear all

Our STI has broken a one-month trading range of around 3,288 – 3,348. Where will STI and the other indices go from here?


S&P500 last closed 2,426

Based on Chart 1 below, although 20D exponential moving average (“EMA”) is trending lower, the other EMAs, namely 50D, 100D and 200D EMA are still trending up. RSI closed at 37.2. Since 7 Nov 2016, the lowest RSI was around 35.9 on 10 Apr 2017. Although the directional indicators (“DIs”) are negatively placed, ADX is still at a low 12.2 which is indicative of a trendless market. My personal view is S&P500 should find good supports around 2,404 – 2,419, coupled with the relatively low RSI. A sustained break below 2,404 (albeit very unlikely in the near term) negates S&P500’s (tad) bullish chart.

Near term supports: 2,416 – 2,419 / 2,404 / 2,393 – 2,395

Near term resistances: 2,437 / 2,446 – 2,450 / 2,457

Chart 1: S&P500’s RSI reached the 2nd lowest level since 7 Nov 2016

S&P500 chart as of 18 Aug 17

Source: Chartnexus chart as of 18 Aug 2017


Hang Seng last closed 27,048

Hang Seng’s chart continues to be on an uptrend with no bearish divergences seen on MACD, OBV and RSI. Notwithstanding 20D EMA which seems to be trading sideways, the other EMAs are still rising. ADX closed 34 on last Fri amid positively placed DIs. With reference to Chart 2 below, Hang Seng continues to be on an uptrend. A sustained close below 26,150 negates Hang Seng’s (still relatively) bullish chart outlook.

Near term supports: 26,854 / 26,500 – 26,610 / 26,255

Near term resistances: 27,168 / 27,623 / 27,870


Chart 2: Hang Seng remains on an uptrend

Hang Seng chart as of 18 Aug 17

Source: Chartnexus chart as of 18 Aug 2017


STI last closed 3,252

STI seems weaker than S&P500 and Hang Seng on a relative basis. Based on Chart 3 below, 20D EMA is turning down. The break below 3,288 points to an eventual measured technical target of around 3,228. Although 20D EMA is turning down, it is noteworthy that 50D, 100D and 200D EMA are still rising with a good degree of separation. RSI closed at 39.7 on last Fri which was the lowest seen since 10 Nov 2016. My personal view is that STI should find good supports around 3,228 – 3,236 and is unlikely to make a sustained close below 3,228 in the near term.

Near term supports: 3,250 / 3,236 / 3,228 – 3,230

Near term resistances: 3,276 / 3,290 / 3,297

Chart 3: STI’s RSI was the lowest seen since 10 Nov 2016

 STI chart as of 18 Aug 17

Source: Chartnexus chart as of 18 Aug 2017



Based on the above charts, it is likely that S&P500 and STI may have limited near term potential downside, should their supports hold. Personally, I have bought in some more shares in certain companies, on weakness, given their near-term potential catalysts seem to remain intact.

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