S&P500 has slumped 13.7% in Dec, largest percentage fall since 1931! Has the bull market ended? (23 Dec 18)

el15

Dear all

After hitting an intra-day high of 2,941 on 21 Sep 2018, S&P500 has tumbled 17.9% or 525 points to close 2,416 on 21 Dec 2018. In fact, S&P500 has just logged the worst monthly performance in Dec since 1931! Dow has also fallen 3,535 points from the intraday high of 25,980 on 3 Dec 2018 and 4,507 points from the intraday high of 26,952 on 3 Oct 2018. What is happening? Is Armageddon coming?

 

Most things have not changed since 21 Sep, except for…

In Sep, when S&P500 hit 2,940, the usual concerns were also there, namely trade tensions; U.S. 10Y treasury yields above 3%; Brexit; concerns on Europe; peak in earnings growth in U.S. market; slowing global growth etc. Since then, nothing much has changed except that

a) Part of the yield curve has inverted

On 3 Dec 2018, the yield curve for U.S. 3Y note and U.S. 5Y note inverted. According to the chief economist of North America at The Conference Board, he wrote in an article posted on MarketWatch 10 Dec 2018 that from the time that the above yield curve inverts, a recession typically starts from nine to 69 months, with an average of 27 months (i.e. more than 2 years).

For the more closely watched indicator i.e. the spread between the 10-year note and the 2-year note, it is still positive and not inverted. Although the spread between the 10-year note and the 2-year note has been narrowing / flattening, some strategists have noted that a flat curve can last for years and the economy can still be strong. According to an article by BMO Capital Markets in June 2018, BMO found that the S&P 500 has appreciated an average 12.3% when the yield curve was flattening vis-à-vis a 7.9% gain amid a steepening yield curve for all periods since 1980. In addition, BMO found that the S&P 500 can still rise an average 14.3% during the later stages of flattening cycles (from 50 bps to 0 bps).

b) U.S. and China have agreed on a trade truce for 90 days

U.S. and China have agreed on a “cease fire of sorts” on trade for 90 days. Notwithstanding the arrest of Huawei’s CFO in Canada and other negative headline news, it seems that China and U.S are still making some progress on the trade front post the dinner between President Trump and President Xi (i.e. it seems relatively better now than in Sep on the trade front)

c) U.S. 10Y treasury yields have dropped from >3% to 2.79%

U.S. 10Y treasury yields have dropped from >3% in Sep 2018 to 2.79% on 21 Dec 2018. This seems to be a net positive for stocks as this may reduce long term borrowing costs and increases the appeal of equities vis-à-vis bonds.

 

Has the bull market ended?

Nasdaq has slipped into a bear market with the 3% drop on last Fri. Most readers will be wondering whether the 9 or 10 year bull market has ended.

According to most strategists, the equity bull market typically ends when some of the conditions happen. For simplicity, I only list three conditions below (i.e. the list is not exhaustive).

a) Inverted yield curve

As per above, the yield curve is flattening but has not inverted yet. According to Blackstone, they do not believe that the yield curve is going to invert soon.

b) Negative earnings growth

It is common knowledge that 2018 likely marks the peak in earnings growth for U.S. corporates. However, it is noteworthy that a peak in earnings growth in 2018 does not necessarily mean a decline in earnings in 2019. For CY 2019, based on Factset, analysts estimate earnings growth of 8.3% and revenue growth of 5.5%.

Chart 1: Earnings and revenue growth in 2019

Chart 1_Factset earnings and rev growth 2019 chart

c) Recessions

Global growth is slowing which is not new. However, based on data, it is unlikely that U.S. may slip into a recession in 1H2019. According to findings from Blue Chip Economic Indicators (see Chart 2 below), most economies are still likely to post some economic growth in 2019. Furthermore, according to the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index, it still indicates good growth through mid-2019. Moreover, the surveys from the Institute for Supply Management are still reflecting continuous new orders of goods and services. Economic growth is important as according to Nuveen Asset Management, recessions have historically been associated with 20%+ drops in equity markets.

Chart 2: Global economic growth projections for 2019

Chart 2_Global economic growth 2019

 

What does the chart say?

S&P500 has slumped 17.9% from an intra-day high of 2,941 on 21 Sep 2018 to close 2,416 on 21 Dec 2018. This is the lowest close since 6 Jul 2017. Previously, I have informed  my clients on 17 Dec Mon morning that a break below 2631, if sustained, is bearish and may point to an eventual technical measured target 2,467 – 2,473 This has already attained and overshot. Some chartists view 2,440-2,445 as target which is already attained.

It is evident that S&P500 chart is bearish as it has broken both the short-term uptrend line established since Jun 2018 and the long-term uptrend line established since Feb 2016. However, oversold pressures have built with a 13.7% fall from an intraday high of 2,800 on 3 Dec 2018 alone. This is the largest drop in Dec since 1931! ADX closed 33.6 on 21 Dec 2018 amid sharply negative placed directional indicators (“DIs”). RSI closed at an oversold level of 22.4 on 21 Dec 18. MFI closed at 19.1 on 21 Dec 18 which is very near to the low of 18.9 on 4 Nov 2017, which is also the low last seen on May 2012. MACD has hit a 10-year low last seen on Oct 2008.

Near term supports: 2,408 / 2,400 / 2,393 / 2,381 / 2,367 / 2,353 / 2,327

Near term resistances: 2,441 / 2,450 / 2,465 / 2,473 / 2,490

Chart 3: S&P500 is oversold

Chart 3_S&P500 oversold

Source: InvestingNote 21 Dec 2018

 

Other notes – Santa rally?

According to an article on MarketWatch (see Chart 4 below), from 26 Dec to the first two trading days of the new year (six-day period), Dow has risen 76% of the time since 1896 with an average performance of +1.5%. With the S&P500 clocking the worst Dec performance since 1931, I believe this sets a good environment for the Santa rally to occur (at least the risk to reward is better as compared to three months ago).

Chart 4: Good seasonal trend betting on Santa

Chart 4_Santa rally

 

My personal strategy – may have a short term rebound

Although I am not an economist, I doubt we will slip into a recession in the near term. Furthermore, the current extremely bearish tone seems to be setting up a favourable risk to reward environment for a trade on a potential rebound in the next few weeks. I have been taking the chance to pare positions in Nov 2018 through 3 Dec 2018, thus I was <50% invested on 17 Dec. I have since started to use some of the cash to accumulate Singapore blue chip stocks on 20 & 21 Dec and long U.S. S&P500 indices on 22 Dec morning. I am currently around 131% invested (with leverage from CFDs), but may raise to 150-200% invested on further weakness. I have also been accumulating selective small caps on weakness. Please refer to the important caveats below.

As some of my private banking clients have enquired for a list of interesting SGX listed stocks to take a look, I have compiled a list of stocks based on Bloomberg’s data as of 21 Dec 2018. Table 1 shows only the top five stocks with the highest estimated total potential return.

Table 1: Top 5 stocks with the highest estimated total potential return

Table 1_Top 5 stocks sorted by total potential return 21 Dec 18

Source: Bloomberg as of 21 Dec 2018

 

Noteworthy points on Table 1 above

1. This compilation is based on Bloomberg’s data as of 21 Dec 2018, sorted with my set of criteria namely,

a) Estimated dividend yield for the next 12 months >=2.0%;

b) SGD Market cap >= S$500m;

c) Presence of analyst target price i.e. covered by analysts

2. The above data is sourced from Bloomberg i.e. I have not checked the above data for accuracy etc.

3. Even though I put “ave analyst target price”, some stocks may only be covered by one analyst hence may be subject to sharp changes. Also, analysts may suddenly drop coverage. In addition, analyst target prices and estimated dividend yield may be subject to change anytime, especially after results announcement or after significant news announcements;

4. Table 1 above is for reference and only shows the top 5 stocks with the highest estimated total potential return. Do note that these 5 stocks have smaller market capitalisation, and some are illiquid. Such stocks may arguably have a higher potential risk component vis-à-vis the likes of DBS and UOB. Therefore, readers should exercise their independent judgement and take into account of their percentage invested, returns expectation, risk profile, specific company developments and current market developments. It is best to research extensively before you make any investment decisions.

5. The entire list comprises of 90 stocks which I will send to my clients.

Meanwhile, merry Xmas and a happy 2019 ahead!

 

Important caveat

Naturally, my market outlook and trading plan are subject to change as charts develop. My plan will likely not be suitable to most people as everybody is different. My above basis is to trade on a potential small retracement in this huge sell-off, and not a reversal in the bearish trend. Do note that as I am a full time remisier, I can change my trading plan fast to capitalize on the markets’ movements. Furthermore, I wish to emphasise that I do not know whether markets will definitely rebound or continue to drop. However, I am acting according to my plans. In other words, my market outlook; portfolio management; actual actions are in-line with one other. Notwithstanding this, everybody is different hence readers / clients should exercise their independent judgement and carefully consider their percentage invested, returns expectation, risk profile, current market developments, personal market outlook etc. and make their own independent decisions.

 

Readers who wish to be notified of my write-ups and / or informative emails, can consider signing up at http://ernest15percent.com. However, this reader’s mailing list has a one or two-day lag time as I will (naturally) send information (more information, more emails with more details) to my clients first. For readers who wish to enquire on being my client, they can consider leaving their contacts here http://ernest15percent.com/index.php/about-me/

 

Disclaimer

Please refer to the disclaimer HERE

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  74. Where can you find some of the best tasting CBD gummies in the UK? Easy, you can find them all here on Orange County CBD. Our range of CBD gummy bears and CBD sweets are a delicious and discreet way to get your daily dose of CBD. We stock only vegan CBD gummies, making them accessible to everyone! What Are CBD Gummies? CBD gummies pair all the benefits of CBD with the great taste of gummy sweets. Made using our multi-award-winning CBD and the finest, vegan-friendly gummy recipes, our CBD gummies are the easy to dose, easy to take and undeniably delicious – making them the perfect choice for newbies! How many CBD gummies should I eat? All of our CBD gummy sweets come with a recommended dose right on the label. However, the number of gummies you take in a single session may vary depending on your own health and wellness goals. Your metabolism, body weight and even your diet will all determine how many you’ll need to feel the effects, but our CBD gummies are a super easy way to find the right dose for you. What is CBD used for? Popular uses include helping to maintain a good sleep wake cycle,easing tension in overworked limbsand assisting in pain management. It also helps for maintaining focus and taking the edge off of the most stressful days. How long does it take for CBD to work? CBD gummies are edibles, meaning that they need to pass through the digestive system before taking effect. This means that it takes longer for the effects of a CBD gummy to take effect, anywhere between 30 minutes and 2 hours in most cases.This slower release means that the effects of edibles last longer, often for three to four hours after dosing. It also means that the effects of the CBD are spread all throughout the body, helping to ease tension everywhere. How will CBD make me feel? BD gummies bring a sense of relaxation, an easing of tension and a soothing of pains. This happens because the CBD within the gummies binds with endocannabinoid receptors – a naturally occurring series of receptors found on organs all across the human body. This action is what gives CBD it’s famously smooth and relaxing impact. CBD gummies are one of the easiest and most straightforward ways of getting this signature kick. Do you sell Vegan CBD gummies? Orange County is proudly plant-powered: all our CBD Edibles are made from 100 vegan ingredients. You can enjoy the succulent taste of juicy Cherries, Peaches and Strawberries without compromising your ethics or dietary preferences. Plus, our CBD oil is sourced from 100 organically-grown hemp. Our vegan-friendly CBD edibles are made with top-quality ingredients and packed with organic broad-spectrum CBD. Are your CBD gummies halal/kosher? Halal roughly translates to ‘lawful’ or ‘permissible’ in English: this is a term used in the Quran to describe practices that adhere to Islamic law. Under Islamic practices, substances that ‘curtain the mind’ are considered the opposite of Halal, otherwise known as Haram, meaning ‘impermissible’ or ‘unlawful’. THC is considered Haram, as it is an intoxicating substance. However, CBD has no psychoactive properties. Here at Orange County, our products are sent off for third-party laboratory testing to ensure the level of THC is undetectable. Therefore, our CBD gummies are halal. ‘Kosher’ is a term used in Judaism to describe strict dietary rules. Outlined in the Torah, Kosher laws dictate that those practising Judaism should not consume gelatin, which is made from the bones and ligaments of cows and pigs.

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  76. Hi, It has come to our attention that you are using our client’s photographs on your site without a valid licence. We have already posted out all supporting documents to the address of your office. Please confirm once you have received them. In the meantime, we would like to invite you to settle this dispute by making the below payment of £500. Visual Rights Group Ltd, KBC Bank London, IBAN: GB39 KRED 1654 8703, 1135 11, Account Number: 03113511, Sort Code: 16-54-87 Once you have made the payment, please email us with your payment reference number. Please note that a failure to settle at this stage will only accrue greater costs once the matter is referred to court. I thank you for your cooperation and look forward to your reply. Yours sincerely, Visual Rights Group Ltd, Company No. 11747843, Polhill Business Centre, London Road, Polhill, TN14 7AA, Registered Address: 42-44 Clarendon Road, Watford WD17 1JJ

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  77. Hi, It has come to our attention that you are using our client’s photographs on your site without a valid licence. We have already posted out all supporting documents to the address of your office. Please confirm once you have received them. In the meantime, we would like to invite you to settle this dispute by making the below payment of £500. Visual Rights Group Ltd, KBC Bank London, IBAN: GB39 KRED 1654 8703, 1135 11, Account Number: 03113511, Sort Code: 16-54-87 Once you have made the payment, please email us with your payment reference number. Please note that a failure to settle at this stage will only accrue greater costs once the matter is referred to court. I thank you for your cooperation and look forward to your reply. Yours sincerely, Visual Rights Group Ltd, Company No. 11747843, Polhill Business Centre, London Road, Polhill, TN14 7AA, Registered Address: 42-44 Clarendon Road, Watford WD17 1JJ

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  78. Hi, It has come to our attention that you are using our client’s photographs on your site without a valid licence. We have already posted out all supporting documents to the address of your office. Please confirm once you have received them. In the meantime, we would like to invite you to settle this dispute by making the below payment of £500. Visual Rights Group Ltd, KBC Bank London, IBAN: GB39 KRED 1654 8703, 1135 11, Account Number: 03113511, Sort Code: 16-54-87 Once you have made the payment, please email us with your payment reference number. Please note that a failure to settle at this stage will only accrue greater costs once the matter is referred to court. I thank you for your cooperation and look forward to your reply. Yours sincerely, Visual Rights Group Ltd, Company No. 11747843, Polhill Business Centre, London Road, Polhill, TN14 7AA, Registered Address: 42-44 Clarendon Road, Watford WD17 1JJ

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  79. Hi, It has come to our attention that you are using our client’s photographs on your site without a valid licence. We have already posted out all supporting documents to the address of your office. Please confirm once you have received them. In the meantime, we would like to invite you to settle this dispute by making the below payment of £500. Visual Rights Group Ltd, KBC Bank London, IBAN: GB39 KRED 1654 8703, 1135 11, Account Number: 03113511, Sort Code: 16-54-87 Once you have made the payment, please email us with your payment reference number. Please note that a failure to settle at this stage will only accrue greater costs once the matter is referred to court. I thank you for your cooperation and look forward to your reply. Yours sincerely, Visual Rights Group Ltd, Company No. 11747843, Polhill Business Centre, London Road, Polhill, TN14 7AA, Registered Address: 42-44 Clarendon Road, Watford WD17 1JJ

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  80. Hi, It has come to our attention that you are using our client’s photographs on your site without a valid licence. We have already posted out all supporting documents to the address of your office. Please confirm once you have received them. In the meantime, we would like to invite you to settle this dispute by making the below payment of £500. Visual Rights Group Ltd, KBC Bank London, IBAN: GB39 KRED 1654 8703, 1135 11, Account Number: 03113511, Sort Code: 16-54-87 Once you have made the payment, please email us with your payment reference number. Please note that a failure to settle at this stage will only accrue greater costs once the matter is referred to court. I thank you for your cooperation and look forward to your reply. Yours sincerely, Visual Rights Group Ltd, Company No. 11747843, Polhill Business Centre, London Road, Polhill, TN14 7AA, Registered Address: 42-44 Clarendon Road, Watford WD17 1JJ

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  81. Hi, It has come to our attention that you are using our client’s photographs on your site without a valid licence. We have already posted out all supporting documents to the address of your office. Please confirm once you have received them. In the meantime, we would like to invite you to settle this dispute by making the below payment of £500. Visual Rights Group Ltd, KBC Bank London, IBAN: GB39 KRED 1654 8703, 1135 11, Account Number: 03113511, Sort Code: 16-54-87 Once you have made the payment, please email us with your payment reference number. Please note that a failure to settle at this stage will only accrue greater costs once the matter is referred to court. I thank you for your cooperation and look forward to your reply. Yours sincerely, Visual Rights Group Ltd, Company No. 11747843, Polhill Business Centre, London Road, Polhill, TN14 7AA, Registered Address: 42-44 Clarendon Road, Watford WD17 1JJ

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  82. Hi, It has come to our attention that you are using our client’s photographs on your site without a valid licence. We have already posted out all supporting documents to the address of your office. Please confirm once you have received them. In the meantime, we would like to invite you to settle this dispute by making the below payment of £500. Visual Rights Group Ltd, KBC Bank London, IBAN: GB39 KRED 1654 8703, 1135 11, Account Number: 03113511, Sort Code: 16-54-87 Once you have made the payment, please email us with your payment reference number. Please note that a failure to settle at this stage will only accrue greater costs once the matter is referred to court. I thank you for your cooperation and look forward to your reply. Yours sincerely, Visual Rights Group Ltd, Company No. 11747843, Polhill Business Centre, London Road, Polhill, TN14 7AA, Registered Address: 42-44 Clarendon Road, Watford WD17 1JJ

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  83. Hi, It has come to our attention that you are using our client’s photographs on your site without a valid licence. We have already posted out all supporting documents to the address of your office. Please confirm once you have received them. In the meantime, we would like to invite you to settle this dispute by making the below payment of £500. Visual Rights Group Ltd, KBC Bank London, IBAN: GB39 KRED 1654 8703, 1135 11, Account Number: 03113511, Sort Code: 16-54-87 Once you have made the payment, please email us with your payment reference number. Please note that a failure to settle at this stage will only accrue greater costs once the matter is referred to court. I thank you for your cooperation and look forward to your reply. Yours sincerely, Visual Rights Group Ltd, Company No. 11747843, Polhill Business Centre, London Road, Polhill, TN14 7AA, Registered Address: 42-44 Clarendon Road, Watford WD17 1JJ

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  84. Hi, It has come to our attention that you are using our client’s photographs on your site without a valid licence. We have already posted out all supporting documents to the address of your office. Please confirm once you have received them. In the meantime, we would like to invite you to settle this dispute by making the below payment of £500. Visual Rights Group Ltd, KBC Bank London, IBAN: GB39 KRED 1654 8703, 1135 11, Account Number: 03113511, Sort Code: 16-54-87 Once you have made the payment, please email us with your payment reference number. Please note that a failure to settle at this stage will only accrue greater costs once the matter is referred to court. I thank you for your cooperation and look forward to your reply. Yours sincerely, Visual Rights Group Ltd, Company No. 11747843, Polhill Business Centre, London Road, Polhill, TN14 7AA, Registered Address: 42-44 Clarendon Road, Watford WD17 1JJ

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  85. Hi, It has come to our attention that you are using our client’s photographs on your site without a valid licence. We have already posted out all supporting documents to the address of your office. Please confirm once you have received them. In the meantime, we would like to invite you to settle this dispute by making the below payment of £500. Visual Rights Group Ltd, KBC Bank London, IBAN: GB39 KRED 1654 8703, 1135 11, Account Number: 03113511, Sort Code: 16-54-87 Once you have made the payment, please email us with your payment reference number. Please note that a failure to settle at this stage will only accrue greater costs once the matter is referred to court. I thank you for your cooperation and look forward to your reply. Yours sincerely, Visual Rights Group Ltd, Company No. 11747843, Polhill Business Centre, London Road, Polhill, TN14 7AA, Registered Address: 42-44 Clarendon Road, Watford WD17 1JJ

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  86. Hi, It has come to our attention that you are using our client’s photographs on your site without a valid licence. We have already posted out all supporting documents to the address of your office. Please confirm once you have received them. In the meantime, we would like to invite you to settle this dispute by making the below payment of £500. Visual Rights Group Ltd, KBC Bank London, IBAN: GB39 KRED 1654 8703, 1135 11, Account Number: 03113511, Sort Code: 16-54-87 Once you have made the payment, please email us with your payment reference number. Please note that a failure to settle at this stage will only accrue greater costs once the matter is referred to court. I thank you for your cooperation and look forward to your reply. Yours sincerely, Visual Rights Group Ltd, Company No. 11747843, Polhill Business Centre, London Road, Polhill, TN14 7AA, Registered Address: 42-44 Clarendon Road, Watford WD17 1JJ

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  87. Hi, It has come to our attention that you are using our client’s photographs on your site without a valid licence. We have already posted out all supporting documents to the address of your office. Please confirm once you have received them. In the meantime, we would like to invite you to settle this dispute by making the below payment of £500. Visual Rights Group Ltd, KBC Bank London, IBAN: GB39 KRED 1654 8703, 1135 11, Account Number: 03113511, Sort Code: 16-54-87 Once you have made the payment, please email us with your payment reference number. Please note that a failure to settle at this stage will only accrue greater costs once the matter is referred to court. I thank you for your cooperation and look forward to your reply. Yours sincerely, Visual Rights Group Ltd, Company No. 11747843, Polhill Business Centre, London Road, Polhill, TN14 7AA, Registered Address: 42-44 Clarendon Road, Watford WD17 1JJ

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  88. Hi, It has come to our attention that you are using our client’s photographs on your site without a valid licence. We have already posted out all supporting documents to the address of your office. Please confirm once you have received them. In the meantime, we would like to invite you to settle this dispute by making the below payment of £500. Visual Rights Group Ltd, KBC Bank London, IBAN: GB39 KRED 1654 8703, 1135 11, Account Number: 03113511, Sort Code: 16-54-87 Once you have made the payment, please email us with your payment reference number. Please note that a failure to settle at this stage will only accrue greater costs once the matter is referred to court. I thank you for your cooperation and look forward to your reply. Yours sincerely, Visual Rights Group Ltd, Company No. 11747843, Polhill Business Centre, London Road, Polhill, TN14 7AA, Registered Address: 42-44 Clarendon Road, Watford WD17 1JJ

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  89. Hi, It has come to our attention that you are using our client’s photographs on your site without a valid licence. We have already posted out all supporting documents to the address of your office. Please confirm once you have received them. In the meantime, we would like to invite you to settle this dispute by making the below payment of £500. Visual Rights Group Ltd, KBC Bank London, IBAN: GB39 KRED 1654 8703, 1135 11, Account Number: 03113511, Sort Code: 16-54-87 Once you have made the payment, please email us with your payment reference number. Please note that a failure to settle at this stage will only accrue greater costs once the matter is referred to court. I thank you for your cooperation and look forward to your reply. Yours sincerely, Visual Rights Group Ltd, Company No. 11747843, Polhill Business Centre, London Road, Polhill, TN14 7AA, Registered Address: 42-44 Clarendon Road, Watford WD17 1JJ

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  90. Hi, It has come to our attention that you are using our client’s photographs on your site without a valid licence. We have already posted out all supporting documents to the address of your office. Please confirm once you have received them. In the meantime, we would like to invite you to settle this dispute by making the below payment of £500. Visual Rights Group Ltd, KBC Bank London, IBAN: GB39 KRED 1654 8703, 1135 11, Account Number: 03113511, Sort Code: 16-54-87 Once you have made the payment, please email us with your payment reference number. Please note that a failure to settle at this stage will only accrue greater costs once the matter is referred to court. I thank you for your cooperation and look forward to your reply. Yours sincerely, Visual Rights Group Ltd, Company No. 11747843, Polhill Business Centre, London Road, Polhill, TN14 7AA, Registered Address: 42-44 Clarendon Road, Watford WD17 1JJ

    Reply

  91. Hi, It has come to our attention that you are using our client’s photographs on your site without a valid licence. We have already posted out all supporting documents to the address of your office. Please confirm once you have received them. In the meantime, we would like to invite you to settle this dispute by making the below payment of £500. Visual Rights Group Ltd, KBC Bank London, IBAN: GB39 KRED 1654 8703, 1135 11, Account Number: 03113511, Sort Code: 16-54-87 Once you have made the payment, please email us with your payment reference number. Please note that a failure to settle at this stage will only accrue greater costs once the matter is referred to court. I thank you for your cooperation and look forward to your reply. Yours sincerely, Visual Rights Group Ltd, Company No. 11747843, Polhill Business Centre, London Road, Polhill, TN14 7AA, Registered Address: 42-44 Clarendon Road, Watford WD17 1JJ

    Reply

  92. Hi, It has come to our attention that you are using our client’s photographs on your site without a valid licence. We have already posted out all supporting documents to the address of your office. Please confirm once you have received them. In the meantime, we would like to invite you to settle this dispute by making the below payment of £500. Visual Rights Group Ltd, KBC Bank London, IBAN: GB39 KRED 1654 8703, 1135 11, Account Number: 03113511, Sort Code: 16-54-87 Once you have made the payment, please email us with your payment reference number. Please note that a failure to settle at this stage will only accrue greater costs once the matter is referred to court. I thank you for your cooperation and look forward to your reply. Yours sincerely, Visual Rights Group Ltd, Company No. 11747843, Polhill Business Centre, London Road, Polhill, TN14 7AA, Registered Address: 42-44 Clarendon Road, Watford WD17 1JJ

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