Ernest Lim's investing blog

Unique insights into SGX small caps

economic

Jiutian – proxy to economic recovery and exposure to EV sector (2 Dec 20)

el15

Dear all Since my write-up “Singapore – Asia’s worst equity market YTD, any opportunities ahead?” posted on my blog on 1 Nov 2020 (click HERE) citing opportunities in our Singapore market, Singapore market (as represented by STI) has clocked in its best monthly return in Nov 2020 since May 2009, up 15.8%! In the U.S., the strong market sentiment is filtering to its small mid cap space with Russell 2000 hitting record high last week. For those readers who are looking for Singapore small caps which are overlooked by the market, Jiutian Chemical (“Jiutian”) may be an interesting company to […]

Chasen – a bullish double bottom making in the making? (23 Oct 19)

el15

Dear all, This week, Chasen catches my attention as it seems to be forming a bullish double bottom on its chart. I have appended my personal chart analysis, together with some potential positive and negative points on the company. Read on for more below.   Chasen’s chart analysis Based on my personal interpretation of Chasen’s chart, it seems to have tested its double bottom neckline around $0.070-0.072 for the past few days. For the past two days, it managed to close higher consecutively with above average volume. In fact, Chasen closed today with 7.3m shares changing hands, 3.8x above its […]

10 things you must know when upgrading from HDB to private (1st October 2019)

el15

This write-up was reproduced with permission from Ray’s Estate Clinic, written by Founder, Raymond Chng. Please refer to the end of the article for more information on Raymond. The decision to upgrade from a HDB to a private property whether a condominium or landed property is a big decision to many, over the past few years, I have had many clients ask me for my opinions and particularly if they should upgrade. Many HDB owners upgrade because they are fearful of their HDB price being stagnant. The worst thing that can happen is a HDB owner to upgrade into a […]

Nasdaq – potential bearish head and shoulders formation in the making? (29 Sep 19)

el15

With reference to my earlier write-up (click HERE) titled “S&P500 at 2,979 – limited potential upside (8 Sep 19)”, S&P500 touched intraday highs of 3,021 – 3,022 on 12 Sep 2019 and 19 Sep 2019 but it was still lower than the record intraday high of 3,028 on 26 July 2019. S&P500 closed at 2,962 on 27 Sep 2019. Hang Seng and STI touch one-month intraday highs on 13 Sep 2019 before profit taking sets in. October is likely a volatile month ahead given (just to cite a few examples) more news on trade talks (e.g. U.S vs China; U.S. […]

S&P500 at 2,979 – limited potential upside (8 Sep 19)

el15

With reference to my earlier write-up (click HERE) titled “Why am I cautious going into July…”, July was coincidentally the peak for S&P500. Hang Seng touched an intraday high of 29,008 on 4 Jul 2019 before slumping 4,108 points to an intraday low of 24,900 on 15 Aug 2019 (Hang Seng closed at 26,691 on 6 Sep 2019.) Personally, given the current market levels and information, I am not comfortable to raise my current percentage invested from 53% to significant levels (say >80%). Why am I cautious in the market? Do read on…   Factors supporting my cautious basis Above […]

S&P500 logged its largest one day fall since Jan. Buy more, or head to the exit? (27 Mar 2019)

el15

Dear readers, Last Fri, S&P500 logged its largest one day fall since 3 Jan 2019, due in part to the weak European PMI and the yield curve inversion between U.S. 3-month bill and 10-year note yields. At the time of writing this, Dow closed 0.55% higher on Tues as U.S. 10 year bond yields stabilise. Is last Fri’s fall the precursor to something more serious? Or it is a false alarm?   First things first, what are the reasons for the sharp rally since late Dec? S&P500 has rallied approximately 20.1%, or 471 points from the intra-day low of 2,347 […]

STI – down 9.4% since 2 May. Correction coming, or buying opportunity? (19 Jun 18)

el15

With reference to my market outlook HERE posted on 11 May 2018, I mentioned at that time that I  have started to sell into strength, as I am cautious on the overall market. I updated on 30 May 2018 (click HERE) that STI is likely to trade sideways with downward bias. Separately, my clients would have been notified on 12 Jun 2018 morning that I have already reduced my percentage invested to approximately 40% as I believe market is likely to trend downwards in the next couple of weeks. In the span of four trading days, STI has dropped 148 […]

STI slumps 198 points after hitting a decade high of 3,642 on 2 May! (30 May 18)

el15

With reference to my market outlook HERE posted on 11 May 2018, I mentioned at that time that I have started to sell into strength, as I am cautious on the overall market. Clients would have been aware / notified that I have already reduced my percentage invested to <60% early last week. STI has since dropped 126 points from 3,570 on 11 May 2018 to close 3,444 on 30 May 2018. For those who wish to accumulate on weakness, I have compiled a list of stocks here, using Bloomberg’s data as of 30 May 2018. The criteria for compilation […]

Caution ahead? Most market strategists think so… (26 Aug 2016)

el15

Dear readers, Various foreign houses such as Bank of America, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs and UBS etc. are advocating caution in the markets ahead. Some of the commonly cited reasons are valuations; still weak corporate results; U.S. election etc. To be balanced, Morgan Stanley in its 12 Aug 2016 write-up said they continue to be bullish on equities. As you are aware, I operate my portfolio on a short term basis. Based on my views in my previous week market write-up dated 19 Aug 2016 (click HERE), I have reduced my equity allocation from 82% on 19 Aug 2016 to […]