Dear all,

UnUsUaL Limited (UnUsUaL) recently caught my attention due to

a) It has slumped approximately 29% from $0.170 on 30 May to touch $0.120 on 16 – 17 Jul;

b) Married deals of 19.0m shares transacted at $0.120 on 19 Jul and 1.6m shares at $0.125 on 22 Jul;

c) Andy Lau is reportedly going to sing in Singapore.

For the above point c), UnUsUaL announced yesterday on their Facebook (click HERE) that Andy Lau will be coming to Singapore for four nights from 10 – 13 Oct at Singapore Indoor Stadium.

Given the above developments, it may arguably be a good time to take a closer look into UnUsUaL. UnUsUaL closed at $0.130 today.

Read on for more.

What does UnUsUaL do?

Based on UnUsUaL’s FY24 press release, it was established in 1997. It started as a stage, sound and lighting equipment rental business. It has grown to become one of the leading names in concert promotion and event production in Asia. Its presence in Singapore is represented by UnUsUaL Entertainment, UnUsUaL Productions, UnUsUaL Development; UnUsUaL Productions in Malaysia; and UnUsUaL Entertainment International in Hong Kong.

Its ability to deliver a complete technical solution has seen the company working on large-scale events such as the Singapore Arts Festival, the Chingay Parade, SG50 Youth Celebrate! and the Formula One Singapore Grand Prix. The company also promotes and organises world class concerts and events for artistes such as Air Supply, Andy Lau, Cesar Millan, Chang Hui Mei, G.E.M, Hillsong, Jacky Cheung, Jay Chou, JJ Lin, Kim Soo Hyun, Lee Min Ho, Lionel Richie, Mariah Carey, Michael Bublé, Park Bo Gum, Pet Shop Boys, S.H.E., Stefanie Sun, Rain and Yanni in Singapore and the region.

UnUsUaL Limited was listed on the SGX-ST Catalist board on 10 April 2017 with an IPO price at $0.200. It subsequently did a bonus issue (shareholders get 3 UnUsUaL shares, for every 5 shares which they have) with an adjusted IPO price at $0.120.

What is so interesting about UnUsUaL?

a) First of all, potential share overhang may have been removed

If I were to hazard a guess, the potential share overhang may have been removed.

This observation comes from

• Since 30 May, UnUsUaL has been hit with relentless selling and has slid approximately 29% from $0.170 on 30 May to touch $0.120 on 16 – 17 Jul;

• UnUsUaL has married deals amounting to 19.0m shares transacted at $0.120 on 19 Jul and 1.6m shares at $0.125 on 22 Jul.

• After the married deals are done, there seems to be buying interest in the shares since 19 Jul.

In light of the above, I would hazard a guess that the share overhang may have been cleared. This scenario reminds me of another company (which I wrote to clients in Apr) when it dropped to a low of $0.04 in Apr. Based on market talk, one fund, or institution was reportedly selling at that time. After it finished selling, the company subsequently went up more than 4x in less than 3 months. Notwithstanding this, I am not saying that UnUsUaL may also have such a spectacular price performance. What I am saying is that at the very least, UnUsUaL may have limited selling pressure left.

b) IPO adjusted for bonus price was $0.120 / share provides a near term floor for share price

It is noteworthy that UnUsUaL’s IPO share price was $0.200 when it debuted in Apr 2017. It subsequently did a bonus issue (shareholders get 3 UnUsUaL shares, for every 5 shares which they have) with an adjusted IPO price at $0.120. Thus, it is likely that the near-term strong support is around $0.120 as most people are unlikely to sell at a loss, unless there is a deterioration in company’s fundamentals.

c) UnUsUaL’s AGM slated on 29 Jul, Mon, 130pm

UnUsUaL will be having their AGM on 29 Jul, Mon, 130pm. A share repurchase program will be put up for shareholders’ approval. If share price continues to languish at current levels, it is possible that company may do some share buybacks.

d) UnUsUaL announces Andy Lau’s concerts in a post yesterday

UnUsUaL announced yesterday on Facebook (click HERE) that Andy Lau will be coming to Singapore for four nights from 10 – 13 Oct at Singapore Indoor Stadium.

My gut feel is that these four nights will be sold out

a) Given that Andy Lau was rather well received in Singapore in 2019;

b) The last time that he came was in 2019. For Andy Lau’s fans, five years is a very long time to wait for their idol.

Tickets range from $168 to $398 and will go on general sale on Aug 14 at 10am.

There will be a pre-sale for UOB cardholders in Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia and Vietnam on Aug 13 from 1pm.

For more details, clients can refer to HERE.

How does a major concert affect UnUsUaL’s share price?

If we were to refer back to 2023, where UnUsUaL first announced Jacky Cheung’s six concerts on 24 Apr 2023 with the tickets available for purchase on 26 Apr 2023, this was what happened to UnUsUaL’s share price.

With reference to Chart 1 below, UnUsUaL rocketed 36% from $0.143 on 24 Apr 2023 to an intraday high of $0.194 in five trading days. However, I wish to point out three differences between Jacky Cheung’s and Andy Lau’s concerts.

• UnUsUaL opens six concerts at the start for Jacky Cheung whereas Andy Lau has four concerts;

• The response from Jacky Cheung’s concerts can be rapidly ascertained as the tickets are open for purchase two days after 24 Apr. However, for Andy Lau’s concerts, the tickets will only be available for public purchase approximately three weeks from now i.e. 14 Aug;

• UnUsUaL closed at $0.130 today, which is lower than $0.143 on 24 Apr 2023.

Chart 1: UnUsUaL rocketed 36% in a span of 5 trading days!

Source: InvestingNote 25 Jul 24

Risks

There are definitely risks involved such as business execution risks; counterparty risks and risks of pandemic striking again such that there are lockdowns in our economies.

Furthermore, I do not know for those buyers who bought at $0.120 and $0.125 via married deals, whether they may sell on bounce. If they only intend to hold short term and just want to flip their shares, there may still be some share overhang.

Due to severe time constraints (I am writing this at night), readers should consider reading UnUsUaL’s announcements on SGX (click HERE) and the dated analyst reports HERE to appreciate more of UnUsUaL’s risks.

Conclusion

This is a brief article and it is just to pen my thoughts and observations to share with my readers. It is by no means complete and readers are advised to do their own due diligence

P.S: I am vested. I have highlighted UnUsUaL to my clients on 19 Jul where UnUsUaL closed at $0.124.

Readers who wish to be notified of my write-ups and / or informative emails, can consider signing up at https://ernest15percent.com. However, this reader’s mailing list has a one or two-day lag time as I will (naturally) send information (more information, more emails with more details) to my clients first. For readers who wish to enquire on being my client, they can consider sending an email to my email address

ernestlim15@gmail.com

Readers can refer to my LinkedIn HERE to see my activities and which companies I have met on a 1-1 basis.

Disclaimer

Please refer to the disclaimer HERE