China Aoyuan – a potential value play? (15 Jun 21)

Dear all

Against the backdrop of rising inflation, some market strategists have recommended “additional urgency” to rotate from technology plays to “old economy value stocks” to hedge against potential inflation pressures (as they believe such inflation pressures are not transitory).

A stock that may tick all the right boxes may be China Aoyuan (“Aoyuan”) (3883.HK). It belongs to the old economy stocks (i.e. property sector which may be a hedge against inflation) and seems to be a value play, given that it trades at HKD7.01 on 15 Jun 21.

 

Who is Aoyuan?

Quoting from a report by DBS Research which has a concise description of Aoyuan, “Aoyuan is a property developer with 57m sqm of land bank with a focus on the Greater Bay Area as at Dec-20. Aoyuan was founded in 1996 in Guangzhou and listed on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong in 2007. Its founder and Chairman Mr. Guo Zi Wen has a 55.2% stake.”

 

What is so interesting about Aoyuan?

a) Total potential upside of around 80%

Based on Figure 1, average analyst target price on Aoyuan polled by Bloomberg is around HKD11.66. At the current price of HKD7.01, this equates to a potential capital upside of around 66%. Coupled with Bloomberg’s estimated dividend yield of around 13.9%, total potential return is around 80%!

Figure 1: Average analyst target HKD11.66

China Aoyuan Analyst 11 Jun 21

Source: Bloomberg 11 Jun 21

b) Widely covered by analysts provides some assurance

Based on Figure 1 above, it is assuring to see that there are 22 analysts covering Aoyuan with 20 analysts calling for a buy vs 2 holds. Based on my personal view, it is assuring for two reasons. Firstly, there seems to be sufficient analysts who have already researched Aoyuan. Thus, there is less chance of any “blind spots” or hidden traps in Aoyuan’s fundamentals yet to discover.  Secondly, if Aoyuan is covered by only a handful of analysts, some analysts may suddenly drop coverage, or its target price may swing quite a bit due to a smaller sample size.

c) Active investor relation calendar this month provides additional assurance

Based on Figure 2 below, Company is very active this month with at least six conferences ranging from 11 Jun (Haitong) to 29 Jun (see HERE for its calendar of seminars). Based on my personal view, generally speaking, if a company has nothing positive to say to the investment community, it is unlikely to waste so much management time to engage the investment community. Secondly, there is a chance that analysts may issue updated reports post these seminars which may potentially spur buying interest. (This assumes that the company shares a positive outlook during these seminars).

Figure 2: Numerous seminars planned this month

Figure 2_Seminars

Source: Company

d) 25% price decline in 8 trading days makes Aoyuan even more interesting

Since hitting a multi month intraday high HKD9.34 on 2 Jun 21, Aoyuan has slumped approximately 25% in eight trading days to trade HKD7.01 on 15 Jun 21. It looks interesting at current levels. During this period, it has ex div HKD 0.77 / share on 4 Jun. I.e. it has dropped much more than its dividend paid.

e) Trades at extremely low valuations either absolute or on relative basis

Aoyuan trades at low absolute PE and P/BV. Based on Bloomberg, it trades at 2.6x FY21F PE & 2.2x FY22F PE; 0.69x FY21F P/BV and 0.57x FY22F P/BV.

On a relative basis (see Figure 3), Aoyuan trades at close to two standard deviations away from 5Y average PE and approximate 0.5x standard deviation away from its 5Y average P/BV.

Figure 3: Trades below its 5Y average PE and P/BV

5Y PEBD 11 Jun 21

Source: Bloomberg 11 Jun 21

f) Chart seems to be getting oversold

Based on Chart 1 below, Aoyuan is approaching oversold level based on its RSI reading of 27.2 on 15 Jun 21. Notwithstanding this, it is noteworthy that Aoyuan’s chart seems to be weakening with declining exponential moving averages. Although there is some volume accompanying the recent sell-off, there is a good chance that the support around HKD6.71 – 7.00. At HKD6.71, it will be at a more than two year low level.

Near term supports: HKD7.00 / 6.85 / 6.80 / 6.75 / 6.71

Near term resistances: HKD7.33 / 7.50 / 7.72 – 7.75 / 7.84 – 7.88

Chart 1: RSI at 27.2 is oversold

Aoyuan chart as of 15 Jun 21

Source: InvestingNote 15 Jun 21

As usual, investments carry risks. The below is just to outline some of the potential risks.

 

Risks

a) Not extremely familiar in Aoyuan; but not a penny stock

This is my first write-up on Aoyuan and suffice to say that I am not extremely familiar to Aoyuan’s fundamentals. However, based on its market cap of around S$3.24b, it is similar in size to Ascott Reit in terms of market capitalisation.

b) Belongs to the yellow grade under the “Three Red Lines” category

In terms of leverage, Aoyuan belongs to the yellow grade under the “Three Red Lines” category defined by China. Various analyst reports cited that Aoyuan’s management plans to reduce its leverage so as to move to the Green grade.

c) Aoyuan’s unsold resources can support < 3 years of sales

Based on CICC’s research report dated 1 Apr 21, CICC estimates that Aoyuan’s unsold resources can support less than 3 years of sales. Thus, Aoyuan needs to strike a balance between investing more in land banking and property development and its leverage.

d) Volatile share price

Aoyuan share price is volatile. Its average trading range is around HKD0.30 which is easily 4.3% of its share price.

e) Usual business, policy or / and investment risks

Usual business risks such as deterioration in profit margins; slowdown in property sales either due to slower than expected completion or / and slowdown in demand. A lower-than-expected dividend payout ratio may also affect investor sentiment in Aoyuan. Furthermore, property companies in China may also face PRC’s policy risks.

 

Conclusion

Readers should be cognisant of the pros and cons in owning Aoyuan’s shares. Personally, what attracts me is its industry, earnings prospects, dividend yield and attractive valuations. Nevertheless, readers are reminded of some of the potential risks such as its usual business, policy, investment risks (see above) which you may face, in investing in Aoyuan. Clients / readers are encouraged to visit Aoyuan’s website HERE and do your own due diligence. Investments carry risk and its best to be familiar and comfortable in what you invest in.

 

P.S: I am vested and have informed clients to start looking into Aoyuan last Friday.

 

Disclaimer

Please refer to the disclaimer HERE

117 thoughts on “China Aoyuan – a potential value play? (15 Jun 21)

  1. кто родился 18 апреля по гороскопу сонник собираться в
    спешке, сонник собирать чемодан опаздывать
    обнимать любимого мужчину во сне, во сне обнимать мужчину, который нравится сонник набирать номер телефона, сонник девушка дала номер телефона кто ты по гороскопу
    если родился 26 октября

  2. Exceptional post however I was wanting to know if you could write
    a litte more on this topic? I’d be very thankful if you could elaborate a little bit further.
    Thank you!

  3. Having read this I believed it was rather enlightening.

    I appreciate you taking the time and energy to put this short article together.
    I once again find myself spending a significant amount of time both
    reading and posting comments. But so what, it was still worthwhile!

  4. When I originally commented I clicked the “Notify me when new comments are added” checkbox and
    now each time a comment is added I get four emails with the
    same comment. Is there any way you can remove people from that service?
    Many thanks!

  5. I love what you guys tend to be up too. This kind of clever work and coverage!
    Keep up the awesome works guys I’ve included you guys to my
    personal blogroll.

  6. Thanks for every other informative blog. Where else could I am getting that
    kind of information written in such a perfect manner? I have a undertaking that I am just now working on, and I’ve been on the look out
    for such information.

  7. Hello there! I could have sworn I’ve visited this web
    site before but after going through a few of the articles I
    realized it’s new to me. Anyhow, I’m certainly happy
    I found it and I’ll be bookmarking it and checking back frequently!

  8. I seriously love your site.. Pleasant colors & theme.
    Did you develop this website yourself? Please reply back as I’m planning to create my own personal site and would love to know where you got this from or exactly what
    the theme is named. Kudos!

  9. Yesterday, while I was at work, my sister stole my apple ipad
    and tested to see if it can survive a forty foot drop, just so she can be a youtube sensation. My apple ipad is now broken and she has 83 views.

    I know this is completely off topic but I had to share it with someone!

  10. Hi there would you mind stating which blog platform you’re working with?
    I’m planning to start my own blog soon but I’m having
    a tough time choosing between BlogEngine/Wordpress/B2evolution and Drupal.
    The reason I ask is because your design seems different then most blogs
    and I’m looking for something completely unique.
    P.S Sorry for getting off-topic but I had to ask!

  11. Woah! I’m really enjoying the template/theme
    of this website. It’s simple, yet effective. A lot of times it’s hard to get that “perfect balance” between usability and visual appeal.
    I must say that you’ve done a great job with
    this. In addition, the blog loads super quick for me on Opera.
    Outstanding Blog!

  12. The other day, while I was at work, my cousin stole my
    apple ipad and tested to see if it can survive a 40 foot
    drop, just so she can be a youtube sensation. My iPad is now destroyed and she has 83 views.
    I know this is completely off topic but I had to share it with someone!

  13. Just desire to say your article is as astonishing. The clarity in your post
    is just cool and i could assume you’re an expert on this subject.

    Well with your permission allow me to grab your RSS feed to keep up
    to date with forthcoming post. Thanks a million and please continue the
    gratifying work.

  14. I know this if off topic but I’m looking into starting my own weblog and was curious what all
    is required to get set up? I’m assuming having a blog like yours
    would cost a pretty penny? I’m not very internet savvy so I’m not 100% sure.

    Any recommendations or advice would be greatly appreciated.
    Thank you

  15. Asking questions are really nice thing if you are not understanding something completely, except this paragraph offers pleasant understanding yet.

  16. Hi there I am so excited I found your weblog,
    I really found you by error, while I was searching on Google
    for something else, Anyhow I am here now and would just like
    to say thanks for a fantastic post and a all round interesting blog (I also love the theme/design), I don’t have time to look over it all at the minute but I have bookmarked it and also added your RSS feeds, so when I have time I will be back to read much more,
    Please do keep up the superb work.

  17. Hi! I know this is sort of off-topic but I had to ask. Does
    managing a well-established website such as yours take a large amount of work?
    I am completely new to writing a blog but I do write in my journal every day.
    I’d like to start a blog so I can easily share my personal
    experience and views online. Please let me know if you have any kind of suggestions or tips for new
    aspiring bloggers. Appreciate it!

  18. алексеев день 30 марта, что нельзя делать 30 марта 2024 года нужно ли
    читать утреннюю молитву перед литургией к чему
    снится татуировка на бедре
    к чему снится старшая сестра, к чему снится сестра которой
    нет дмитрий колдун я для тебя минусовка скачать бесплатно

  19. Thanks for one’s marvelous posting! I seriously enjoyed reading
    it, you might be a great author. I will make certain to bookmark
    your blog and will come back in the foreseeable future.
    I want to encourage you continue your great posts, have a nice holiday weekend!

  20. Thank you, I’ve recently been looking for information approximately this
    topic for a while and yours is the greatest I’ve came upon till now.
    But, what about the bottom line? Are you positive concerning the source?

  21. свободная экономическая зона рк, свободная экономическая зона алматы сколько генералов в казахстане, действующие генералы казахстана адыраспан дәнін жеу, адыраспан рак ауруына пайдасы қаңлы әкімшілік орталығы, қаңлылар туралы тест жауаптарымен

  22. тар жол тайғақ кешу на русском
    қазыбек би біз жай жатқан елміз, қазыбек би кім
    жақын не қымбат не қиын дауна анализ казакша,
    дауна ауруы неден пайда болады купить титан аристон в караганде, аристон мечта кокшетау

  23. You have made some decent points there. I checked
    on the web for additional information about the issue
    and found most people will go along with your views on this web site.

  24. какие местоимения относятся к притяжательным,
    притяжательные местоимения жақсы
    өнеге тех карта, қауіпсіздік ережелері мақсаты турист боровое, щучье боровое отдых тынымбай нұрмағамбетов анасын сағынған бала, анасын сағынған бала мазмұны

  25. футбол тарихы қазақша, футбол реферат
    қазақша скачать компьютерлік жүйелердің архитектурасы реферат, қазіргі компьютердің архитектурасы намаз уакыты, намаз уакыты түркістан халық үніне құлақ асатын мемлекет слайд, жолдау
    2022 16 наурыз текст

  26. түсінде қызымды жылан шағып алды, түсінде жылан
    сол аяғын шағып алды сим-карта
    не активирована теле2 казахстан, как активировать сим-карту теле2 на телефоне намысқой синоним, баспасөзде синоним сталиндік идеология, сталиндік идеологияның зардаптары

  27. как настроить отау тв без тарелки, настройка отау тв dvb-t2 бақытсыз жамал
    мен еңлік кебек ұқсастығы, еңлік кебек операсының авторы тұлға
    дамуының негізгі факторлары, тұлғаның қалыптасуы газ плита электрическая,
    газ плита сулпак цены

  28. When I originally commented I clicked the “Notify me when new comments are added” checkbox and now each time a
    comment is added I get three e-mails with the same comment.
    Is there any way you can remove people from that service?
    Many thanks!

  29. Hello to every body, it’s my first pay a quick visit of this weblog;
    this web site consists of remarkable and
    really fine information for visitors.

  30. отбасы туралы пост, отбасы туралы шығарма
    тарату логистикасы презентация, өткізу тізбегі деген не жұмыртқа
    жасушасының даму процесі, ұрықтанбаған жұмыртқа жасушасының дамуы суреттерге қара етістіктерге өткен шақ,
    өздерің көрген бір драмалық шығармаға аннотация жазыңдар

  31. Appreciating the persistence you put into your website and detailed information you present.
    It’s nice to come across a blog every once in a while that isn’t the
    same unwanted rehashed material. Great read!

    I’ve saved your site and I’m including your RSS feeds to my Google
    account.

  32. We are a bunch of volunteers and starting a brand new scheme in our community.
    Your website offered us with helpful info to work on. You’ve done an impressive
    task and our entire community can be thankful to you.

  33. I just like the valuable info you supply on your articles.
    I’ll bookmark your blog and take a look at once more right here regularly.
    I’m quite certain I’ll be told a lot of new stuff right right here!
    Good luck for the following!

  34. Hey there! I know this is kinda off topic but I was wondering if
    you knew where I could find a captcha plugin for my comment form?

    I’m using the same blog platform as yours and I’m having
    problems finding one? Thanks a lot!

  35. Hi, I do believe this is an excellent web site. I stumbledupon it 😉 I am
    going to return once again since I book-marked it. Money
    and freedom is the greatest way to change, may you be rich and continue to help others.

  36. With havin so much content do you ever run into any issues
    of plagorism or copyright infringement? My blog has a lot of exclusive content I’ve either authored
    myself or outsourced but it looks like a lot of
    it is popping it up all over the web without my authorization. Do you know any solutions
    to help stop content from being stolen? I’d really appreciate
    it.

  37. I just like the helpful information you provide in your articles.
    I’ll bookmark your blog and take a look at again right here regularly.

    I’m rather certain I’ll be informed many new stuff
    right right here! Best of luck for the next!

  38. Have you ever considered about including a little bit more than just
    your articles? I mean, what you say is valuable and everything.
    However imagine if you added some great pictures or videos to give your posts more, “pop”!
    Your content is excellent but with pics and videos, this blog could definitely be one
    of the best in its field. Wonderful blog!

  39. I do not know whether it’s just me or if everyone else encountering problems with your blog.
    It appears as if some of the text in your content are running off the screen. Can somebody
    else please provide feedback and let me know if this is happening to them as
    well? This might be a issue with my web browser because I’ve had this happen previously.

    Thanks

  40. Thanks a bunch for sharing this with all folks you actually know
    what you’re talking about! Bookmarked. Please additionally seek
    advice from my website =). We may have a link alternate
    contract among us

  41. We are a group of volunteers and opening a brand new scheme in our community.
    Your website offered us with valuable information to work
    on. You have done an impressive activity and our entire neighborhood will probably be thankful
    to you.

  42. My developer is trying to convince me to move to .net from PHP.
    I have always disliked the idea because of the expenses.

    But he’s tryiong none the less. I’ve been using WordPress on numerous websites for about a year and am anxious
    about switching to another platform. I have heard fantastic
    things about blogengine.net. Is there a way I can transfer all
    my wordpress content into it? Any help would be greatly appreciated!

  43. Greetings I am so glad I found your web site, I really
    found you by accident, while I was browsing on Askjeeve for something else,
    Nonetheless I am here now and would just like to say thanks a lot for a marvelous post and a
    all round interesting blog (I also love the theme/design), I
    don’t have time to go through it all at the moment but I have book-marked it and also added in your RSS
    feeds, so when I have time I will be back to read much more,
    Please do keep up the great work.

  44. Hey There. I found your blog using msn. This is a really well written article. I’ll make sure to bookmark it and come back to read more of your useful information. Thanks for the post. I will definitely return.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *