REC Insights Part 1 of 3: Prime Property at near Mass Market Prices? (26 Apr 18)

REC Insights is a 3 part series hopes to provide insights to investors looking for opportunities in the Singapore Property Market. These insights will be accompanied with detailed, straight to the point analysis. These insights are purely my personal opinion only and do not constitute any investment advice.

In the previous article “5 things you must know before your next property investment” (Click HERE), I discussed about higher vacancy rates, rising interest rates and a potential oversupply situation from 2021 onwards. In addition to the previous discussed points, many Singaporeans would say that salary has not risen, or has not risen in line with inflation while property prices gone up, and most recently, gone up a huge amount that numerous property buyers are being priced out of the market. Fear not, there are and will be opportunities if you look hard enough.

Before we go on to insights (please note that this is my personal opinion only, disclaimer applies), it is important to understand what the future selling prices of en-bloc developments and government land sales will be. For the purpose of analysis, I will highlight selected estimated selling price below.

fig 1

Fig 1. New Launch Price Table

Source: Straits Times, Business Times. Compiled by: REC

Notes: Outside Core Region (OCR), Rest of Central Region (RCR), Core Central Region (CCR)

 

Based on the above selling prices, new mass market developments are priced at the $1700psf range, while new city fringe developments are priced at $2000psf or higher range and new prime area developments will sell at $3000psf range.

As an investor, we often have to look for the arbitrage opportunities, or the gaps where not many investors are looking at. In my opinion, there is a window of opportunity in District 1 & 2, Marina Bay/Shenton Way/Tanjong Pagar area. Some properties in District 1 & 2 are selling for $2000-2200psf. Buying a prime CBD property at this price, which is just $100-400psf higher than a mass market / city fringe new development would be a good investment with a good margin of safety entry point. To elaborate further on Marina Bay and Tanjong Pagar Properties as an investment, the following three key factors analyzed are outlined below:

 

1. Price Disparity

An analysis on the property price difference between the average New Mass market (outside central region) properties and New Central Business District or CBD (central core region) properties was done and the results are shown in Fig 2 and Fig 2.1.

fig 2

Fig 2. Price Disparity Table

Source: URA, Compiled by REC Research

fig 2.1

Fig 2.1. Price Disparity Chart

Source: URA, Compiled by: REC Research

 

Based on Fig 2 and Fig 2.1, the trend seen is that the price gap between mass market and prime cbd properties have been narrowing. With prices of Mass market properties increasing while prices of Prime CBD property remain flat. Based on current price trends in fig 1, Prime CBD property prices are likely to rise bringing the price disparity from 1 : 1.4 back to 1 : 2.4 in 2012. Using the price disparity ratio, we can attempt to project the future price potential of Prime CBD properties which will be discussed further in point 3, price growth catalyst.

 

2. Location Growth Catalyst

fig3

Fig 3. List of Infrastructure Pipeline and Catalysts

Source: ST, Wiki Compiled by: REC

 

Marina Bay area has one of the most infrastructure spending by the Singapore government. First, the Marina Coastal Expressway (MCE) which costs S$4.3billion, was constructed to replace the East Coast Parkway (ECP) link to Ayer Rajah Expressway (AYE), creating an additional route to enter the Marina Bay CBD. The MCE would provide improved traffic going into the CBD. In addition, a total of 5 MRT lines converge into the Marina Bay and Tanjong Pagar vicinity with Marina Bay interchange having 3 MRT lines (north south line, circle line and future Thomson east coast line). Infrastructure is the first step in developing an area, after infrastructure is constructed, the government will be able to build more residential and commercial buildings. I believe this is exactly what the government has planned.

Marina Bay will have constant construction and development before it reaches its full potential some 20 years later. The first stage of marina bay’s growth was from 2005 to 2015, we are currently in the second stage of growth where the government is finishing up infrastructure developments till 2025, before more developments can be constructed, with the extension of the area towards Greater Southern waterfront city from 2025 onwards. I personally believe that Marina Bay’s growth timeline is summarized below,

a) Infrastructure Developments from 2005 to 2025;

b) Next stage of demand growth from 2018 onwards and likely to have explosive growth from 2025 onwards when central subzone and straits view are built (fig 4.)

The next stage of growth has been kick off by the completion of Marina One by M+S Pte Ltd, a historical collaboration between both Khazanah and Temasek Holdings, the Sovereign Wealth Funds of Malaysia and Singapore Government. Marina One is the heart of Marina Bay, directly linked to Marina Bay MRT. Future developments will spread out surrounding this development. The next masterplan which is released every 5 years is expected to be in 2019, and is likely to cover more details of development plans about marina bay as well as tanjong pagar.

fig4

Fig 4. CBD Planning Overview

Source: URA

 

3. Price Growth Catalyst

Singapore’s finance industry transformation map (ITM) targets a total of 4000 new jobs (Fig 5.) created in the Finance and FinTech sector annually. This would contribute to higher rental demand which would in turn attract more investors.

fig 5

Fig 5. Financial Services Industry Transformation Map

Source: Ministry of Trade and Industry

 

Attracting young well heeled individuals and property collectors, Wallich Residences, which is Singapore’s tallest building and residential development in Tanjong Pagar has seen units transact above $3800psf. With units on sale from $3800 to 4200psf, the trading range of CBD properties will eventually rise. Taking into consideration of the price disparity mentioned in point 1 above, based on 2018 mass market price of $1700psf, Prime CBD price should transact at $4000psf based on the old ratio of 1 : 2.4. It is only a matter of time before prices in the CBD will revise upwards.

With majority of infrastructure ready or waiting to be completed, the next phase of growth has started, for investors who missed the first wave of growth on The Sail, the next window of opportunity is here. Buying at a price of $2100psf range will provide a good margin of safety and good investment returns.

 

Our Views

Currently undervalued as seen from narrowing of price disparity (point 1) and multi-decade government growth plans, there are opportunities to invest selectively in properties in Marina Bay/Tanjong Pagar area with entry prices from as low as $1.1mil. For investors who have missed out the previous upcycle of this area, the next opportunity is here. If you like to find out other areas worth looking at, stay tuned for the next REC Insights article.

 

About the Author

Ray’s Estate Clinic (REC), founded by the affable Raymond Chng, is a platform for Investors’ and homeowners to have a Property Portfolio Health Check by utilizing data analytics, ensuring that their portfolio remains healthy providing optimized returns.

“Health is Wealth” is what Raymond believes in, and it is not related only to your own body’s health, but it also refers to one’s financial health. Having a Property Portfolio that is not performing does not help improve an investor’s wealth. Hence, converting non-performing assets into optimized performing assets is essential to portfolio’s health improvement.

Raymond graduated with a Bachelors Degree in Business Management (Finance) from the Singapore Management University, and has been in the real estate industry for almost a decade. He believes that marrying financial analysis with real estate data is the future of real estate investment. Having successfully invested in equities, real estate and other asset classes, he works with various domain experts to provide a holistic solution for anyone keen to improve their Property Portfolio Health.

Raymond can be reached at raysestateclinic@gmail.com

 

Disclaimer

This article, publication or newsletter is purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. Material in this article comes from many sources and may be inaccurate or incomplete. The author does not warrant the completeness, accuracy or timing of any information herein. This is not an offer to buy or sell real estate properties. Information or opinions on this blog are presented solely for educational and entertainment purposes, and is not intended nor should they be construed as investment advice. Under no circumstances shall the authors and its agents, or any third party providers, ever be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental, punitive, special or consequential damages, or any attorney fees, from any person or entity that has viewed this blog. View this article or publication at your own risk. It is advisable that readers seek their own professional advice.

Also, please refer to the disclaimer HERE

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