Dear all,
Raffles Medical caught my attention recently as CLSA raised its target price from $1.70 to $1.92 on 8 Feb 23. $1.92 is a street high target with most analysts’ target price ranging between $1.58 – 1.65. Raffles Medical closed down 1 cent to $1.45 last Fri.
Based on my personal view and observation, generally speaking, analysts seldom issue updated call so near to the company’s results release date. I mean there is usually no such urgency to do so, unless they have a significant change in view on the company. For those analysts who do, their calls are usually quite accurate.
At $1.45, are there any trading opportunities?
Before I answer the above, just to shout out to readers, I typically send writeups or my thoughts on the markets to my clients on a regular basis. Readers who are interested can consider signing up at http://ernest15percent.com. However, this reader’s mailing list has a one or two-day lag time as I will (naturally) send information (more information, more emails with more details) to my clients first. For readers who wish to enquire on being my client, they can consider leaving their contacts here http://ernest15percent.com/index.php/about-me/
In addition, in line with my usual practice of compiling SGX stocks sorted by total potential return at the start of the month, readers who wish to receive my manual compilation of stocks sorted by total potential return can leave their contacts HERE. I will send the list out to readers around 4 Mar 23.
In a nutshell, there may be trading opportunities for Raffles Medical. However, do read carefully the basis and importantly the risks below. For a more complete picture on Raffles Medical, it is advisable to refer to Raffles Medical’s analyst reports (Click HERE) and SGX website (Click HERE).
*Basis*
a) Analysts are positive on Raffles Med with average target $1.68
Based on Bloomberg dated 15 Feb, consensus target price for Raffles Medical is around $1.68. If the consensus is right, this represents a potential capital upside of around 16%.
Figure 1: Average analyst target around $1.68, representing a potential capital gain of around 16%!
Source: Bloomberg 20 Feb 23
b) FY22F net profit should meet or exceed consensus estimates
Raffles Med should meet consensus FY22F net profit estimates of around $113m. 9MFY22 net profit were already 98m, comprising of 87% of consensus estimates.
c) Tailwinds to aid Raffles Medical
With China reopening, coupled with global reopening, medical tourism and demand for its healthcare services in China are examples of tailwinds to aid Raffles Medical over the medium to long term.
d) Bullish chart, coupled with bullish price action
Raffles Medical’s chart looks bullish. On 15 Feb Wed, Raffles Med was able to bounce off $1.42-1.43 support region and closed near day high at $1.46. This performance is especially significant given the weak market sentiment on Wed. (STI fell 37 points or 1.1% on Wed) Most of Raffles Medical’s medium and long term moving averages are heading higher whereas shorter term 20D & 50D exponential moving averages are starting to trend lower.
It is noteworthy that both UOB KH and CGS CIMB technical analysts share the same bullish view as me as both issued technical buy calls on 16 Feb.
Based on price action (purely my own observation), there seems to be buyers around $1.45.
Near term supports: $1.45 / 1.42 – 1.43 / 1.40
Near term resistances: $1.46 / 1.48 / 1.50 / 1.52
Chart 1: Raffles Medical bounced off its 50D SMA and Fibonacci level; looks bullish
Source: InvestingNote 19 Feb 23
e) Price moves ahead of results
Based on Chart 1 above, suffice to say that Raffles Med typically starts moving higher (1 week – 1 month) ahead of results. Although it has started to move from its intraday low $1.36 on 17 Jan 23 to an intraday high of $1.52 on 9 Feb, prices have retraced quite a bit to around $1.45. If it follows past patterns, Raffles Medical may climb this week ahead of its results release on 27 Feb before market opens.
*Risks*
a) Trades at around 26.7x FY23F PE –> Not exactly cheap valuations
Based on Bloomberg, Raffles Medical is trading at 26.7x FY23F PE. Although such valuations are not cheap, they are not excessive either. Raffles Medical’s average 10-year PE is around 27.9x. Furthermore, there is a lack of large listed health care players with net cash in Singapore. Thus, I reckon that for those who wish to have exposure in healthcare sector, they are likely to consider Raffles Medical as one of the stocks to invest in.
b) Consensus estimate Raffles Med’s net profit to drop 11% in FY23F
This can be viewed as good or bad.
i) Good: At the very least, expectations are not sky high and may set the stage for exceeding the estimates.
ii) Bad: If net profit really drops in FY23F, personally, it is not so attractive to me as I like to buy companies with increasing earnings and rising earnings per share.
c) Will FY22F revenue beat estimates?
Previously, I mentioned that Raffles Med should be able to meet FY22F consensus net profit, However, I am not sure whether FY22F revenue can meet consensus FY22 revenue as 9MFY22 revenue only comprise of 75% of consensus estimates. .
d) Management is usually cautious
Raffles Medical’s tone seen in its press release over the past few quarters seems to be usually rather measured. They are not usually very bullish hence I am not sure how much the share price can react to earnings.
e) Buying ahead of results is risky
At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I wish to emphasise that buying ahead of results is risky. This is because there is no guarantee that company share price may move up even on good results / guidance. In addition, if Raffles Medical disappoints on results or / and guidance, it is likely to have an adverse effect on Raffles Medical’s share price.
Conclusion
Notwithstanding the potential aforementioned risks (the list is by no means exhaustive), Raffles Medical may be a potential trading play as we head to its FY22F results release on 27 Feb, Mon before market opens.
Just my personal view only. Have a good week ahead! 😊 Busy and exciting times ahead!
Readers have to assess their own % invested, risk profile, investment horizon and make your own informed decisions. Everybody is different hence you need to understand and assess yourself. The above is for general information only. For specific advice catering to your specific situation, do consult your financial advisor or banker for more information
P.S: I am vested in Raffles Medical.
Disclaimer
Please refer to the disclaimer HERE
I’ve been following your blog for a while, and this might be your best post yet.
Very shortly this web page will be famous among all blogging users, due to it’s fastidious content
Remarkable things here. I’m very glad to look your post.
Thanks so much and I am looking forward to contact you.
Will you please drop me a e-mail?
Excellent blog! Do you have any tips for aspiring writers?
I’m planning to start my own site soon but I’m a little lost on everything.
Would you propose starting with a free platform like WordPress or go for a paid option? There are so
many choices out there that I’m totally overwhelmed ..
Any recommendations? Many thanks!
An intriguing discussion is definitely worth comment. I think that you ought
to write more on this subject matter, it might not
be a taboo matter but generally people do not speak about these issues.
To the next! Many thanks!!
Its such as you learn my mind! You appear to grasp so much about this, such as you wrote the e book in it or something.
I think that you simply can do with a few % to drive the message home a little bit, but other than that,
this is great blog. A fantastic read. I will certainly
be back.
Just want to say your article is as astounding.
The clearness in your post is just spectacular and i can assume you’re an expert on this subject.
Fine with your permission allow me to grab your RSS feed to keep
updated with forthcoming post. Thanks a million and please carry on the gratifying work.
Thanks for the concepts you talk about through this web site In addition, many young women that become pregnant never even try and get medical health insurance because they dread they wouldn’t qualify Although many states at this moment require that insurers offer coverage no matter the pre-existing conditions Fees on these guaranteed options are usually higher, but when taking into consideration the high cost of medical care bills it may be your safer strategy to use to protect a person’s financial potential
이태원스웨디시안마게이클럽
I was just searching for this info for a while After 6 hours of continuous Googleing, finally I got it in your web site I wonder what’s the lack of Google strategy that do not rank this type of informative websites in top of the list Usually the top sites are full of garbage
acheter du médicaments en Espagne Aristo Magdeburg médicaments
en vente libre en France
https://itgunza.com/994
Thanks for finally talking about > Raffles Medical – Potential trading play as its results
are just around the corner (20 Feb 23) | Ernest Lim's investing blog < Liked it!
сонник выходить замуж в белом платье замужней женщине, во сне собираться замуж за незнакомца значение имени джуди
славянский оберег для защиты ребенка
к чему снится умершая тетя с
ребенком готический пасьянс архангел
Preis für verschreibungspflichtige Medikamente Generis Brixlegg médicaments :
Les essentiels à savoir avant l’achat en ligne
médicaments pour une expérience d’achat sans stress Verman Cambrai commander médicaments en Belgique en ligne
штраф за перегруз по осям в казахстане, штраф за перегруз людей в машине атас песня,
ислам итляшев скачать альбом все песни қазақстандағы
ұжымдастыру салдары, қазақстандағы ұжымдастыру салдары эссе емшек
ұшы неге қышиды, емшек қышыса
музыка қыс қызығы тех карта жарты минут екі жарым сағаттың қандай
бөлігі, 16-дан кіші құрама сандардың
қосындысын табыңыз. әйел
адамдардың дәрет алуы, ғұсыл дәрет алу үлгісі әйелдерге алтын куз таныстыру такпак, алтын
күз таныстыру 6 сынып
музыка қыс қызығы тех карта жарты минут екі жарым сағаттың қандай
бөлігі, 16-дан кіші құрама сандардың
қосындысын табыңыз. әйел
адамдардың дәрет алуы, ғұсыл дәрет алу үлгісі әйелдерге алтын куз таныстыру такпак, алтын
күз таныстыру 6 сынып
Prix avantageux pour la médicaments en ligne en France sanias Ansfelden achat de médicaments en Belgique
Comprar medicamentos en línea en México Pharmachemie Herk-de-Stad acheter du médicaments en France
aankoop van het merk Mylan medicijnen Polipharm Erlangen comprar medicamentos en línea en Bogotá
https://k-studio.kr/k학교전-우승-학교-전교생-간식간식차-받기/
колонна разделить на слоги, типовые учебные программы для детей с ооп инсульттан кейінгі оңалту кезеңдері, инсульттан кейінгі
реабилитация презентация лекция по пожарной безопасности для школьников, правила пожарной
безопасности в школе рк ұлттық мәдениеттің жаһандану үрдісі 10 сынып, ұлттық мәдениеттің жаһандану үрдісі презентация
pisa дайындық, pisa халықаралық зерттеудің мақсаты мен
міндеттері подготовка к школе на полный день алматы, подготовка к школе рядом
смарт-часы, смарт-часы как подключить климатическая
карта казахстана, агроклиматические ресурсы – это
пұт деген не, пұт деген не ислам материалы для производства рекламы алматы, листовые материалы для рекламы қазақ тіліндегі алғашқы қазақстан тарихы оқулығының авторы, қазақстан тарихы кітап статьи про буллинг, травля статья рк
әңгіме бойынша жердегі және айдағы тіршілікті салыстыру,
ай туралы аңыз қырқынан шығару деген не,
ер баланы қырқынан шығару неше
күнде басқа жанға қимағансн музыка, мені ұмыт бар айтарым
сол ғана музыка скачать жаңа президент
кім, қасым жомарт тоқаев руы
кім
Wow! In the end I got a blog from where I know how to truly take
valuable data concerning my study and knowledge.
вакансии 1с программист без опыта,
работа в 1 с конфедерация мемлекет, конфедеративті мемлекет деген не ағаш үй, киіз
үйдің ерекшеліктері бурыл жылқы,
жылқы жасы атауы
кто по знаку зодиака человек который родился
11 ноября гороскоп ведьмочка козерог колесница перевернутая беременность
во время молитвы свет норма времени в часах значение
к чему снятся ходить в воде сонник ты убиваешь старославянский амулет солнце
солнце таро значение да или нет ответ к чему
сниться живая рыба пожилой женщине
подработка в декрете на дому
орел найти работу в воронеже няней на дому
подработка сварщиком в минске с ежедневной оплатой работа яндекс еда
удаленно отзывы работников
каражанбасмунай зарплата, каражанбасмунай дивиденды еңлік
кебек кейіпкерлері мінездеме, еңлік
кебек кейіпкерлеріне жанама
мінездеме бауыржан байбек в розыске,
вторая жена байбека астана турция сколько лететь,
алматы турция сколько лететь
벼룩시장 신문그대로보기 (구인구직, 부동산) 벼룩시장 신문그대로보기 바로가기 그리고 지역별 벼룩시장 종이신문그대로보기 방법 (구인구직, 부동산) 알아볼게요. 교차로신문 같이 벼룩시장은 지역별 일자리, 구인구직, 부동산 등 다양한 정보를 제공해요. 교차로신문그대로보기 바로가기는 아래에서 확인하고, 오늘은 벼룩시장 신문그대로보기 바로가기 그리고 사용법 섹스카지노사이트
Why people still use to read news papers when in this technological
globe all is existing on web?
Young Master Yi is good can i purchase generic cytotec pills