S&P500 – closed below its 200D EMA – a 1st since Nov 2016! (23 Mar 18)

March 25, 2018 el15

Dear all, Previously, I mentioned in my write-up dated 21 Mar that I am avoiding the event risk of the U.S. tariff package against Chinese (click HERE). This proves timely as S&P500 fell 129 points, or 4.7% from 2,717 on 20 Mar to close 2,588 on 23 Mar. At 2,588, S&P500 has made its first close below its 200D exponential moving average (“EMA”) since Nov 2016. Why and how is this significant? During the sharp 10% drop in the first part of Feb 2018, S&P500 has not closed below its 200D EMA. Furthermore, most technical analysts are watching this level […]

Biases in Investing (25 Sep 16)

September 25, 2016 el15

“I’m an idiot. I shouldn’t have sold off ‘Stock A’. I just know that it will rocket upwards in the next few days. And now it has surged. It is so obvious. I should have seen it coming” Do the above sentences sound familiar? If yes, then you probably have a hindsight bias. Biases are typically insidious and can affect and distort our thinking and interpretation of data and choices without our knowledge, thus we have to be wary of the biases and act accordingly. I was recently asked by Lianhe Zaobao (please refer to their article HERE dated 25 […]

Investment Strategy Part 1

October 11, 2008 el15

Investing is like a game. However, it is not a zero sum game. It does not mean that if you win, the other party will lose. For eg. If you buy China Fishery at $0.65, and sell it at $0.70. Does that mean the buyer who bought from you is a sucker? Nope. He likes China Fishery because he thinks it can go up higher than $0.70, perhaps with a 2 year horizon. Does that mean that you should have sold it higher? Nope. This is because you may have a better investment alternative which may not appeal to other […]

Why invest?

October 11, 2008 el15

Investing is gaining importance over the years, especially against the backdrop of negative real interest rates in Singapore. People want to insure their futures and their families, and they know that, if they are depending on CPF, and in some cases retirement plans, that they may be in for a rude awakening when they no longer have the ability to earn a steady income. Investing is the answer to the unknowns of the future. You may have been saving money in a low interest savings account over the years. Now, you want to it to grow at a faster pace. […]