Table 1_Top ten stocks sorted by total potential return 30 Jul 21

S&P500 closed at record high! What should we do? Buy or sell? (9 Aug 2021)

Dear all S&P500 has clocked its sixth consecutive month of gains in July 2021. This is the longest stretch since 2018. Furthermore, S&P500 has touched a record high to close at 4,437 on 6 Aug 2021. In the next 3 months, are markets poised for higher highs? Or should we be prudent and take some profit off the table first? Let’s take a look.   Ernest’s personal market observations a) Lack of catalysts to push the market higher Since Covid last year, markets, especially U.S. markets, have been able to push higher due partly to the combination of ultra-easy monetary policies; […]

China Aoyuan Analyst 11 Jun 21

China Aoyuan – a potential value play? (15 Jun 21)

Dear all Against the backdrop of rising inflation, some market strategists have recommended “additional urgency” to rotate from technology plays to “old economy value stocks” to hedge against potential inflation pressures (as they believe such inflation pressures are not transitory). A stock that may tick all the right boxes may be China Aoyuan (“Aoyuan”) (3883.HK). It belongs to the old economy stocks (i.e. property sector which may be a hedge against inflation) and seems to be a value play, given that it trades at HKD7.01 on 15 Jun 21.   Who is Aoyuan? Quoting from a report by DBS Research […]

image 1 - enbloc cycle timeline

3 potential En-bloc hotspots that should be on property investors’ radar (28 May 2021)

This write-up was reproduced in entirety with permission from Ray’s Estate Clinic, written by Founder, Raymond Chng. Please refer to the end of the article for more information on Raymond. In the previous 2017 En-bloc cycle, some resale properties in En-bloc hotspots saw price gains of up to 28%. (We wrote articles about these moves in a previous article, you can read about it HERE) Image 1: Enbloc Cycle Timeline, Source: JLL Given that En-bloc cycles tend to be 5 to 6 years apart, and the start of the last En-bloc cycle was in 2017, the next En-bloc cycle could […]

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How to select the right new launch property development? (11 Sep 2019)

This write-up was reproduced with permission from Ray’s Estate Clinic, written by Founder, Raymond Chng. Please refer to the end of the article for more information on Raymond. This is a follow up article from a previous article – 10 things you must know before buying a new launch property (click HERE). Some readers wrote to me after reading the article, I’m glad that the article provided good insights. Some even came to me for my opinions on what to consider when selecting a new launch. This article is for anyone who needs an un-biased view on new launch property […]

Analyst target price 29 Aug 19

HRNet – All time oversold levels amid lowest price since IPO! (29 Aug 19)

Dear all Another exciting week! This week, HRNet caught my attention as it approaches all time oversold RSI level. In addition, it is trading at the lowest price $0.560 since its IPO price at $0.900. Given the basis below, my personal view is that HRNet may be presenting a favourable risk reward setup for a long trade. Do look at the basis and more importantly, the risks inherent in such trades.   My personal basis a) Average target price $0.93! Based on Figure 1 below, average analyst target is around $0.930, representing a potential capital upside 66%. Estimated div yield […]

Analyst target price 6 Aug 19

CKH Holdings at 19-year oversold levels; multi-year low price amid 10-year low valuations (6 Aug 19)

Dear all What a hectic and exciting week! This week, CKH Holdings (00001.HK) (“CKH”) caught my attention with its 19-year low RSI level since end Dec 2000. At the time of writing this, CKH last trades at HKD67.60, level last seen around 21 Feb 2014. With such a precipitous decline, CKH is trading below its 10-year average valuations. Given the basis below, my personal view is that CKH may be presenting a favourable risk reward setup for a long trade. Do take a look at the basis and more importantly, the risks inherent in such trades.   My personal basis […]

S&P500 10Y PEBD 1 Jul 19

Why am i cautious going into July… (2 Jul 19)

Dear all, With reference to my market write-up published on 29 May 2019 (click HERE), where I mentioned that the sell-off in the markets revealed interesting trading opportunities, markets coincidentally bottomed on 3 Jun 2019 and staged a strong recovery. I have already sold into strength and reduced my percentage invested in stocks from 150% in early June to 12% now. Personally, I am cautious in the market going into July. Why is this so?   Basis below 1) Markets jumped yesterday following the U.S. / China trade truce announced over the weekend, despite the lack of details on what […]

Chart 1_record order book as of 10 Aug 2018

ISOTeam trades near 4 year low despite record order books and bright outlook (10 Jan 19)

ISOTeam (“ISO”) caught my attention. Despite sitting on a record order book, ISO has tumbled approximately 44% from an intra-day high of $0.385 on 10 Apr 2018 to close near a four year low at around $0.215 on 10 Jan 2019. The share price decline was attributable in part to its 4QFY18 surprise loss announced in Aug 2018 (financial year ends in Jun). Nevertheless, my gut feel is that 4QFY18 should mark the trough in earnings and results should improve on a quarter on quarter basis in the next few quarters. As this company is a potential turnaround play, I […]

Chart 3_S&P500 oversold

S&P500 has slumped 13.7% in Dec, largest percentage fall since 1931! Has the bull market ended? (23 Dec 18)

Dear all After hitting an intra-day high of 2,941 on 21 Sep 2018, S&P500 has tumbled 17.9% or 525 points to close 2,416 on 21 Dec 2018. In fact, S&P500 has just logged the worst monthly performance in Dec since 1931! Dow has also fallen 3,535 points from the intraday high of 25,980 on 3 Dec 2018 and 4,507 points from the intraday high of 26,952 on 3 Oct 2018. What is happening? Is Armageddon coming?   Most things have not changed since 21 Sep, except for… In Sep, when S&P500 hit 2,940, the usual concerns were also there, namely […]

Sunpower chart 20 Dec 18

Sunpower – price action & bullish divergence warrant a closer look (20 Dec 18)

Dear readers, Some of you have sent me emails to express concerns whether I am still maintaining my blog, as I have not posted an article in the past couple of months. Thanks for the concern and emails. It warms my heart that there are readers who are actively following my blog. Something happened to my family which caused me unable to post articles on a timely basis. (My clients are still receiving some periodic short writeups on the market and specific companies during this period) Anyway, I am glad to be back to work this week! This week, Sunpower’s […]