Figure 1_CDL Hospitality (clear) ANR 1 Sep 23

CDL Hospitality trades at multi-month low levels $1.03 despite strong 2H outlook! (3 Sep 23)

Dear all CDL Hospitality Trust (CDREIT) has caught my attention after slumping from $1.19 on 31 Jul to close $1.03 on 31 Aug. After taking into account of $0.0251 dividend per share ex on 4 Aug, it is still down 11.6% for the month, notching a multi-month low despite a likely buoyant 2HFY23F. Let’s take a closer look on why CDREIT has caught my attention.   Firstly, why did it drop 12% in Aug? The drop in CDREIT’s share price may be attributed to three main reasons, viz. a) 1HFY23 results missed some analysts’ estimates 1HFY23 results released on 28 […]

Fig 1 Genting Singapore ANR 4 Aug 23

Genting Singapore, touted as a recovery play, trades near eight-month low price! (5 Aug 23)

Dear all Recently, Genting Singapore, a supposedly recovery play, closed at a near eight-month low price. It caught my attention especially after Las Vegas Sands (LVS) reported results on 19 Jul 2023. LVS reported a good set of results and indicated that there is scope for further improvement, as China tourists have not come back in full force yet. While the details (such as VIP volume growth and win percentage) may differ markedly from LVS (i.e., Marina Bay Sands) and Genting Singapore, generally speaking, the good set of results in MBS increases the chance that Genting Singapore may report similar […]

Table 2_Top ten stocks sorted by total potential return 31 May 23

S&P500 hits the highest last seen in Aug 2022! Should we buy, hold or sell? (3 Jun 23)

Dear all First of all, apologies for the hiatus in posting new market outlook on my blog. I have been extremely busy for the past three months. My clients can attest to how busy I have been. I have been sending out my market views and news even on weekends and on public holidays. 😊 With reference to my previous writeup published on 26 Feb 2023 (click HERE), I mentioned that I planned to pare positions so that I can accumulate on weakness. In retrospect, it was a timely call. I was fortunate that I have pared my positions so […]

AEM ANR 18 Feb 22

AEM enters bear market despite analysts’ positive calls. What gives? (20 Feb 22)

Dear all AEM has fallen 21% from an intraday high of $5.37 on 14 Dec 2021 to close $4.25 on 18 Feb 2022. What has happened in the last two months to warrant such falls? Based on Bloomberg, average analyst target price is around $6.72, representing a potential capital upside of around 58%. Is this the bottom for AEM, or will it fall further? Personally, I think AEM is worth a closer look at $4.20 – 4.30 region. Let’s take a look at its investment merits and risks.   First things first, what does AEM do? According to its company […]

Fig 1_Factory capacity, floor plan to produce electric motorcycle

GSS Energy – Electric mobility business takes shape (25 Jan 22)

Dear all, With reference to my write-up published on 5 Jan 2022 (click HERE) citing that Asian indices are likely to outperform that of the U.S. market in 2022, our Asian indices, viz. Hang Seng and STI have outperformed the U.S. market significantly (See Table 1 below). U.S. S&P500 notched a 6.4% decline whereas Hang Seng and STI registered a 9.0% and 4.2% gain respectively since my write-up. Table 1: S&P500, Hang Seng and STI 2021 performance since 5 Jan 2022 Source: Ernest’s compilation Given the outperformance, are there still pockets of opportunities in our Singapore market? The short answer […]

Table 1_Top ten stocks sorted by total potential return 30 Jul 21

S&P500 closed at record high! What should we do? Buy or sell? (9 Aug 2021)

Dear all S&P500 has clocked its sixth consecutive month of gains in July 2021. This is the longest stretch since 2018. Furthermore, S&P500 has touched a record high to close at 4,437 on 6 Aug 2021. In the next 3 months, are markets poised for higher highs? Or should we be prudent and take some profit off the table first? Let’s take a look.   Ernest’s personal market observations a) Lack of catalysts to push the market higher Since Covid last year, markets, especially U.S. markets, have been able to push higher due partly to the combination of ultra-easy monetary policies; […]

Chart 1_SPX 10Y PEBD

Markets are “bubblish”, or aren’t they? (5 Apr 2021)

Dear all Markets have been on a tear for the past five months. Since my write-up published on 1 Nov 2020, citing opportunities in our Singapore market (click HERE for the write-up), STI has soared 786 points, or 32.4% from 2,424 on 30 Oct 2020 to close 3,210 on 5 Apr 2021 (intra-day high today was 3,212). At the time of writing this, S&P500 futures are trading at 4,040, translating to around 24% gain over the same period. In fact, STI is the 2nd best performing market for 1Q2021 amongst 18 global benchmarks. Are markets in the midst of a […]

STI chart as of 27 Mar 19

S&P500 logged its largest one day fall since Jan. Buy more, or head to the exit? (27 Mar 2019)

Dear readers, Last Fri, S&P500 logged its largest one day fall since 3 Jan 2019, due in part to the weak European PMI and the yield curve inversion between U.S. 3-month bill and 10-year note yields. At the time of writing this, Dow closed 0.55% higher on Tues as U.S. 10 year bond yields stabilise. Is last Fri’s fall the precursor to something more serious? Or it is a false alarm?   First things first, what are the reasons for the sharp rally since late Dec? S&P500 has rallied approximately 20.1%, or 471 points from the intra-day low of 2,347 […]

Sunpower chart 20 Dec 18

Sunpower – price action & bullish divergence warrant a closer look (20 Dec 18)

Dear readers, Some of you have sent me emails to express concerns whether I am still maintaining my blog, as I have not posted an article in the past couple of months. Thanks for the concern and emails. It warms my heart that there are readers who are actively following my blog. Something happened to my family which caused me unable to post articles on a timely basis. (My clients are still receiving some periodic short writeups on the market and specific companies during this period) Anyway, I am glad to be back to work this week! This week, Sunpower’s […]