Sep – Historically a weak month for equities. Buy, hold or sell? (6 Sep 2022)

Dear all, After touching an intraday high 4,325 on 16 Aug 22, S&P500 has slid 401 points, or -9.3% to 3,924 on 2 Sep. Hang Seng has slid to around 19,144 at the time of writing. Given the market pullback, there are several interesting stocks worthy of research. Coupled with various macro events happening this month (e.g. ECB & Fed Chair Powell Speaks 8 Sep; U.S CPI 13 Sep and FOMC 22 Sep etc.), I have to plan my trading strategy. Give the above, time is tight and this will be just be a brief article to update readers. (As […]

Markets – diverging signs from technicals and fundamentals. What should we do? (4 Apr 2022)

Dear all March has been a roller coaster month. Hong Kong market, represented by Hang Seng index touched multi-year lows around 14-15 Mar and has rebounded approximately 21% from the intraday lows. S&P500 performed well too with a third consecutive weekly rise. With reference to my writeup (click HERE) published on 6 Mar 2022, I mentioned that a) Odds are likely of a downward push first I mentioned that based on chart, odds are higher for a downwards move for both S&P500 and STI, to retest the previous support around 4,115 – 4,222 and 3,138 – 3,200 (with 3,175 a […]

Markets may continue to be volatile but also present valuable opportunities ahead (6 Mar 2022)

Dear all We are two months into 2022. How is your portfolio doing? With reference to my writeup (click HERE) published on 17 Feb 2022, I mentioned that STI is likely to face headwinds in the near-term and SG banks’ share prices are likely to peak around 7-18 Feb based on past observations.   Coincidentally a) STI peaked on 17 Feb. In fact, STI has tumbled 6.9%, or 239 pts from its intraday high 3,466 on 17 Feb to close 3,227on 4 Mar. Last Friday’s intraday low was 3,208. More about its chart below. b) Banks – DBS peaked on […]

STI is up 10.1% YTD; may face profit taking in the near-term (16 Feb 2022)

Dear all STI has been on a tear since the start of the year. With reference to my write-up published on 5 Jan 2022 (click HERE) citing that Asian indices are likely to outperform that of the U.S. market in 2022, STI has indeed notched strong year to date (“YTD”) gains of 10.1% to close 3,439 on 16 Feb 2022. This outperformance is especially stark if we compare it to S&P500’s -6.1% YTD returns. As I have shared with Lianhe Zaobao on 9 Feb 2022, I personally feel that our STI is overbought in the near term with several near-term […]

STI – having closed at a record YTD high, will it continue higher? (7 Nov 2021)

Dear all With reference to my market outlook published on 3 Oct (see HERE) citing opportunities in our Singapore market, STI has soared 191 points, or 6.3% from 3,051 on 1 Oct to close at a year to date high 3,242 on 5 Nov. Will STI continue to march higher, or will there be some profit taking?   Very briefly, my personal view is It is likely that STI may face some profit taking in the near term, attributable in part to the following factors: a) With reference to Figure 1 below, MSCI Singapore index will undergo a rebalancing in […]

STI at 3,051 – Presents some attractive opportunities (3 Oct 2021)

Dear all With reference to my market outlook published on National Day (see HERE), both STI and Hang Seng have hit their highs on 10 Aug and 11 Aug respectively before dipping. Based on Table 1 below, S&P500, Hang Seng and STI have fallen 1.8%, 6.1% and 4.0% respectively since my writeup. Table 1: Indices’ performance since my last writeup Source: Ernest’s compilations Amid the recent weakness, you may be wondering whether it is a good time to accumulate on weakness. Before we get to this, let’s take a look at the indices’ charts.   S&P500 closed 4,357 Based on […]

S&P500 closed at record high! What should we do? Buy or sell? (9 Aug 2021)

Dear all S&P500 has clocked its sixth consecutive month of gains in July 2021. This is the longest stretch since 2018. Furthermore, S&P500 has touched a record high to close at 4,437 on 6 Aug 2021. In the next 3 months, are markets poised for higher highs? Or should we be prudent and take some profit off the table first? Let’s take a look.   Ernest’s personal market observations a) Lack of catalysts to push the market higher Since Covid last year, markets, especially U.S. markets, have been able to push higher due partly to the combination of ultra-easy monetary policies; […]

STI – Will it head for new YTD high after S&P500 clocked its 7th consecutive day of rally? (6 Jul 2021)

Dear all S&P500 and Nasdaq clinch fresh record highs last Friday with S&P500 clocking in seven consecutive days of gains in its longest winning streak since August 2020. Despite the roaring U.S. markets, Singapore Straits Times Index (“STI”) has slipped almost 100 points from its 2021 intraday high of 3,237 on 30 Apr 2021 to close 3,141 on 5 Jul 2021. Can STI exceed 3,237 for 2HFY2021? Most strategists believe so, as their year-end targets for STI are easily above 3,237. Let’s look at the possible reasons why analysts are positive on our Singapore market.   Reasons to be optimistic […]