Markets hit by selling pressure. Is it time to BUY? (23 Oct 23)

Dear all It has been some time since I last wrote an article on market outlook. I have been extremely busy for the past three months where I have been meeting companies and other associates. (Check out my LinkedIn HERE). I have also just arranged an exclusive meetup with Lendlease Reit Manager CEO, Kelvin Chow and Head of Investor Relations, Ling Bee Lin with my clients last Friday. (Click HERE). As of last Friday, Lendlease Reit’s market capitalisation is around S$1.16b. With reference to Chart 1 below, October continues to see the third monthly outflows of funds from China equity markets. […]

Markets may continue to be volatile but also present valuable opportunities ahead (6 Mar 2022)

Dear all We are two months into 2022. How is your portfolio doing? With reference to my writeup (click HERE) published on 17 Feb 2022, I mentioned that STI is likely to face headwinds in the near-term and SG banks’ share prices are likely to peak around 7-18 Feb based on past observations.   Coincidentally a) STI peaked on 17 Feb. In fact, STI has tumbled 6.9%, or 239 pts from its intraday high 3,466 on 17 Feb to close 3,227on 4 Mar. Last Friday’s intraday low was 3,208. More about its chart below. b) Banks – DBS peaked on […]

STI is up 10.1% YTD; may face profit taking in the near-term (16 Feb 2022)

Dear all STI has been on a tear since the start of the year. With reference to my write-up published on 5 Jan 2022 (click HERE) citing that Asian indices are likely to outperform that of the U.S. market in 2022, STI has indeed notched strong year to date (“YTD”) gains of 10.1% to close 3,439 on 16 Feb 2022. This outperformance is especially stark if we compare it to S&P500’s -6.1% YTD returns. As I have shared with Lianhe Zaobao on 9 Feb 2022, I personally feel that our STI is overbought in the near term with several near-term […]

Will Singapore stocks outperform U.S. stocks in 2022? (5 Jan 2022)

Dear all With reference to my market outlook published on 7 Nov (see HERE) citing our Singapore market may face near term profit taking, STI dropped 201 points, or 6.6% from 3,242 on 5 Nov to close at 3,041 on 30 Nov. As we start 2022, various investment banks and research houses have put forth their views on how the various markets will perform. In this write-up, I will share how the markets have performed in 2021 and my market outlook in 2022.   How did the markets perform in 2021? Based on Table 1 below, it is evident that […]

STI – having closed at a record YTD high, will it continue higher? (7 Nov 2021)

Dear all With reference to my market outlook published on 3 Oct (see HERE) citing opportunities in our Singapore market, STI has soared 191 points, or 6.3% from 3,051 on 1 Oct to close at a year to date high 3,242 on 5 Nov. Will STI continue to march higher, or will there be some profit taking?   Very briefly, my personal view is It is likely that STI may face some profit taking in the near term, attributable in part to the following factors: a) With reference to Figure 1 below, MSCI Singapore index will undergo a rebalancing in […]

STI at 3,051 – Presents some attractive opportunities (3 Oct 2021)

Dear all With reference to my market outlook published on National Day (see HERE), both STI and Hang Seng have hit their highs on 10 Aug and 11 Aug respectively before dipping. Based on Table 1 below, S&P500, Hang Seng and STI have fallen 1.8%, 6.1% and 4.0% respectively since my writeup. Table 1: Indices’ performance since my last writeup Source: Ernest’s compilations Amid the recent weakness, you may be wondering whether it is a good time to accumulate on weakness. Before we get to this, let’s take a look at the indices’ charts.   S&P500 closed 4,357 Based on […]

City Dev falls nine out of ten sessions; near Mar 2020 low amid oversold RSI (2 Nov 2020)

Dear all, Since 19 Oct 2020, City Dev has fallen nine out of ten sessions with a cumulative drop of 20%. City Dev closed at $6.20. Let’s take a look why this City Dev has slumped and why it has caught my attention.   Reasons why City Dev has underperformed The below list of likely reasons is not exhaustive. It is just based on my personal view what may have caused City Dev’s underperformance. 1) Concerns over how much support is required by Sincere Property Group Concerns over how much support is required by Sincere Property Group (“Sincere”) flare up […]

STI – to head towards 3,390 points in 1Q2020? (25 Dec 19)

Merry Xmas! As we approach end 2019, most market strategists are putting their market estimates for end 2020. Although I do not profess to be in the league of these market strategists, just for fun, I am expecting STI to head towards 3,390 in 1Q2020. STI closed at 3,222 on 24 Dec 2019. I have outlined my basis and the risks involved.   Factors for my bullish basis a) Chart looks positive after bullish break Based on Chart 1 below, STI has staged a bullish break above its flag formation on 12 Dec 2019. Notwithstanding below average volume for the […]

Chasen – a bullish double bottom making in the making? (23 Oct 19)

Dear all, This week, Chasen catches my attention as it seems to be forming a bullish double bottom on its chart. I have appended my personal chart analysis, together with some potential positive and negative points on the company. Read on for more below.   Chasen’s chart analysis Based on my personal interpretation of Chasen’s chart, it seems to have tested its double bottom neckline around $0.070-0.072 for the past few days. For the past two days, it managed to close higher consecutively with above average volume. In fact, Chasen closed today with 7.3m shares changing hands, 3.8x above its […]

S&P500 at 2,979 – limited potential upside (8 Sep 19)

With reference to my earlier write-up (click HERE) titled “Why am I cautious going into July…”, July was coincidentally the peak for S&P500. Hang Seng touched an intraday high of 29,008 on 4 Jul 2019 before slumping 4,108 points to an intraday low of 24,900 on 15 Aug 2019 (Hang Seng closed at 26,691 on 6 Sep 2019.) Personally, given the current market levels and information, I am not comfortable to raise my current percentage invested from 53% to significant levels (say >80%). Why am I cautious in the market? Do read on…   Factors supporting my cautious basis Above […]