What a hectic and exciting week! This week, CKH Holdings (00001.HK) (“CKH”) caught my attention with its 19-year low RSI level since end Dec 2000. At the time of writing this, CKH last trades at HKD67.60, level last seen around 21 Feb 2014. With such a precipitous decline, CKH is trading below its 10-year average valuations.
Given the basis below, my personal view is that CKH may be presenting a favourable risk reward setup for a long trade. Do take a look at the basis and more importantly, the risks inherent in such trades.
My personal basis
a) All BUY calls on CKH with an average target price HKD103.27
Based on Figure 1 below, all 14 analysts who cover CKH issue buy calls. This is not an easy feat. Average analyst target HKD103.27, representing a potential capital upside 53%. Estimated div yield is around 4.6%. Total potential return (should consensus be correct) is around 58%.
Figure 1: Average analyst target HKD103.27; total potential upside 58%
Source: Bloomberg 5 Aug 2019
b) Trading at a discount to 10-year valuations
Based on Shareinvestor, CKH’s NAV / share is around HKD115.70. Based on Bloomberg, CKH is trading at 0.60x P/BV and 6.8x current PE; vis-à-vis its 10-year average 8.3x PE and 0.7x P/BV. I.e. CKH is trading at a discount to 10Y average valuations.
c) Price typically rebounds around current level HKD70-72
Based on CKH’s chart, it typically rebounds around its support region HKD70 – 72. This can be seen in Mar 2014; May 2014; Oct 2014 and Jan 2015. Although historical price performance does not guarantee future share price performance, it is still a good gauge of where the buyers may emerge.
d) Chart looks oversold with bullish divergences shown by the indicators
CKH’s technical chart looks interesting on three aspects (see Chart 1 below). Firstly, CKH’s RSI last trades at 13.0 which is an extremely oversold level. In fact, it is the most lowest oversold level since end Dec 2000. Secondly, most indicators (which I use) such as MFI, MACD and OBV are showing bullish divergences which may indicate that the recent slide to HKD67.60 may not be sustainable. Thirdly, CKH has broken below its two-month trading range HKD74.55 – 78.20 with a measured technical target HKD70.90 which has been attained. To some extent, as the downwards measuring objective has already been met, the selling pressure for it to go lower may arguably be lesser.
Near term supports: HKD67.30 / 66.60 / 66.00 / 65.00
Near term resistances: HKD68.90 / 70.00 / 70.90 / 71.30 / 72.50 / 73.50 / 75.00
Chart 1: Entrenched in a strong downtrend but extreme oversold pressures build
Source: InvestingNote 6 Aug 2019
As usual, with any trading or investment idea, there are always risks. The list below is not exhaustive.
a) HK protest and trade tension may exert selling pressure
Protests in Hong Kong have stretched for the past two months plus. Such protests undoubtedly will put some adverse pressure on stocks. Furthermore, any worsening of U.S. China trade tensions may also have an adverse impact on stocks.
b) Strong downtrend
Based on Chart 1 above, it is evident that CKH is on a strong downtrend as evidenced by its death cross formations and downwards sloping EMAs. In view of this, take profit levels should be measured and realistic.
c) Not familiar with the company
As this basis is based primarily on its technical oversold level, I am not familiar with CKH’s business and the underlying fundamentals. There may arguably be some reasons known to the market but not to me resulting in the continuous fall in the share price. Readers are encouraged to do your own due diligence. Readers who are not familiar with CKH can take a look at its company website HERE.
d) Chart reading is subjective; no rule that RSI will not go below 13
There is no rule that RSI cannot go below 13, or even 10. However, on the balance of probability, it is less likely that CKH can keep on dropping without some form of bounce, as oversold pressures escalate and amid an overwhelming positive analyst base.
In view of the above, there is no doubt that CKH is on a strong downtrend. However, it seems likely that near term potential downside may be capped, as oversold pressures escalate. I have initiated a long position in this stock via CFDs, with the aim of getting a couple of bids of potential profit if any. This is a trade based on potential retracement, as oversold pressures escalate and not a trend reversal play. Nevertheless, there are significant risks (highlighted above, for example, I am not familiar with CKH’s business and its fundamentals) which we should be aware of. Furthermore, it is noteworthy that as I am a full time remisier, I can change my trading plan fast to capitalize on the markets’ movements (I am not the buy and hold kind). Readers should exercise their due diligence and evaluate carefully. As I have always emphasised, everybody is different hence readers / clients should exercise their independent judgement and carefully consider their percentage invested, returns expectation, risk profile, current market developments, personal market outlook etc. and make their own independent decisions.
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P.S: I have mentioned to my clients on CKH yesterday and especially today as it seems very interesting indeed.
Please refer to the disclaimer HERE