Chart 3 Sunpower chart 24 Oct 18

Sunpower slips into bear market territory – Buying opportunity or falling knife? (24 Oct 18)

This week, Sunpower attracts me due partly to the industry which it is in; the recent US$180m investments made by DCP and CDH into Sunpower whose market cap is only around US$206m, and the considerable 40% share price decline since hitting an intra-day high of $0.645 on 28 Jun 2018 to trade $0.385 today. Let’s take a look.   Description of Sunpower Based on Sunpower’s description, it is an environmental protection solutions specialist in proprietary energy saving and clean power technologies. It has two main business segments, viz. Manufacturing & Services (“M&S”) and Green Investments (“GI”). M&S segment comprise of […]

S&P500 chart 12 Oct 18

STI has dropped almost 17% since 2 May! Is a bear market coming? (14 Oct 18)

Dear all, U.S. equity markets have logged their worst weekly performance in the past six months. For our local market, STI has dropped 16.7% from an intra-day high of 3,642 on 2 May 2018 to an intra-day low of 3,035 on 11 Oct 2018. It closed at 3,069 on 12 Oct 2018. Is a bear market coming? There are mixed views. Bears are saying that we have not reached the bottom yet. Some perma-bears are even saying this may be the start of the bear market. Bulls are saying that this represents a window of opportunity to accumulate stocks on […]

Sing medical analyst target price 2 Oct 18

Sing Medical trades near one year low despite a 70% jump in 1HFY18 net profit! (3 Oct 2018)

This week, Sing Medical (“SMG”) caught my attention. SMG has dropped 39% from $0.725 on 18 Jul 2017 to trade $0.440 on 3 Oct 2018. My personal guess is part of the fall may be attributable to a) Lower, or no earnings growth for some of the healthcare players in FY18F. However, this is likely not the case for SMG, as analysts believe SMG is on track for a minimum 40% growth in FY18F net profit. It is noteworthy that SMG already posted a 70% jump in 1HFY18 net profit; b) Reduction in the general PE valuations ascribed to the […]

Venture anr 24 Apr 18

Venture approaches bear territory! Should we sell? (24 Apr 18)

Dear all, Venture has entered into bear territory after dropping 21% from an intraday high of $29.65 on 13 Apr 2018 to close $23.40 on 24 Apr 2018. What should we do? Let’s examine the chart and some noteworthy points on Venture.   Chart analysis Based on Chart 1 below, Venture’s chart seems to resemble a bearish double top formation. The break below its neckline $26.95 points to an eventual technical measured target $24.60 which is already attained today. 20D, 50D and 100D exponential moving averages (“EMA”) have started to turn lower amid the sharp drop. Venture closed below its […]

S&P500 chart as of 29 Mar 18

Island reversal; potential Dow Theory sell signal… What does this mean for our markets? (30 Mar 18)

Dear all, Besides the headline grabbing news on Facebook and the U.S. China trade tariffs etc. some of you may have noticed other equally interesting / alarming headlines such as the island reversal chart formation seen in Nasdaq 100 (click HERE) and Nasdaq Composite index, and reports that a potential “Dow Theory” sell signal, one of the oldest and arguably the most widely followed market timing tool, may happen anytime (click HERE). What should we do? Let’s take a closer look at the charts and my personal action plan.   S&P500 closed 2,640. Day range 2,610 – 2,659 Based on […]

Table 1_Top five stocks with the highest estimated total potential returns 21 Mar 18

S&P500 – closed below its 200D EMA – a 1st since Nov 2016! (23 Mar 18)

Dear all, Previously, I mentioned in my write-up dated 21 Mar that I am avoiding the event risk of the U.S. tariff package against Chinese (click HERE). This proves timely as S&P500 fell 129 points, or 4.7% from 2,717 on 20 Mar to close 2,588 on 23 Mar. At 2,588, S&P500 has made its first close below its 200D exponential moving average (“EMA”) since Nov 2016. Why and how is this significant?  During the sharp 10% drop in the first part of Feb 2018, S&P500 has not closed below its 200D EMA. Furthermore, most technical analysts are watching this level […]

S&P500 chart as of 16 Feb 18

S&P 500 jumped 4.3% last week, the best performance since Jan 2013! Is the recent sell off over? (18 Feb 18)

Last week, all three U.S. major indices (i.e. DOW, S&P500 and Nasdaq) have registered their best weekly performance in years. Is the recent sell off over? Let’s take a look.   7 observations on the market U.S 10Y bond yield is still relatively high at 2.875% (click HERE) vis-à-vis 2.418% a year ago. If it suddenly surges to around 3%, it may fuel another sell off; Inflation based on several indicators such as core CPI / core PPI released the week of 12 – 16 Feb are rising faster than forecasts. However, market shows limited reaction towards the inflation data […]

STI chart as of 27 Oct 17

Ernest’s market opinion (27 Oct 17)

Dear all STI has closed at 3,386, a fresh 29-month high. Some of you who have been less than 30% invested in their portfolios and have not added more exposure in their equities portfolio last month are wondering whether you have missed out of the rally. Should you continue to chase this? Read on for more.   S&P500 last closed 2,581 S&P500 is on a strong uptrend with all the exponential moving average (“EMA”) trending higher. ADX closed at 29.3, amid positively placed DIs, indicative of a trend. RSI closed at 70.7. This is not extremely overbought, relative to past […]

Chart 1 Hatten's chart as of 26 Sep 17

Hatten Land – poised to breach above $0.210 (26 Sep 17)

Hatten Land (“Hatten”) has been trading in a tight range $0.192 – 0.210 for the past two months. Recently, there seems to be a pick up in the volume traded for the past two days. Hatten’s chart looks positive on several fronts.   Chart analysis Based on Chart 1 below, odds seem high that Hatten may be poised to breach above $0.210 in the next couple of months. This is because a) The recent price increase (albeit mild price increase) is accompanied with volume. On the days which Hatten falls, it is accompanied with lower than average volume; b) A […]

S&P500 chart as of 18 Aug 17

Ernest’s market opinion (18 Aug 17)

Dear all Our STI has broken a one-month trading range of around 3,288 – 3,348. Where will STI and the other indices go from here?   S&P500 last closed 2,426 Based on Chart 1 below, although 20D exponential moving average (“EMA”) is trending lower, the other EMAs, namely 50D, 100D and 200D EMA are still trending up. RSI closed at 37.2. Since 7 Nov 2016, the lowest RSI was around 35.9 on 10 Apr 2017. Although the directional indicators (“DIs”) are negatively placed, ADX is still at a low 12.2 which is indicative of a trendless market. My personal view […]