Chart 1_SPX 10Y PEBD

Markets are “bubblish”, or aren’t they? (5 Apr 2021)

Dear all Markets have been on a tear for the past five months. Since my write-up published on 1 Nov 2020, citing opportunities in our Singapore market (click HERE for the write-up), STI has soared 786 points, or 32.4% from 2,424 on 30 Oct 2020 to close 3,210 on 5 Apr 2021 (intra-day high today was 3,212). At the time of writing this, S&P500 futures are trading at 4,040, translating to around 24% gain over the same period. In fact, STI is the 2nd best performing market for 1Q2021 amongst 18 global benchmarks. Are markets in the midst of a […]

Table 1_Ave premium to VWAP

My thoughts on Sing Medical Group’s possible share transaction (29 Dec 20)

Dear all Sing Medical Group (“SMG”) announced on 18 Dec 20 that the Company is currently in discussions with a third party regarding a possible transaction involving the Company’s shares. The discussions are preliminary and there is no certainty or assurance that such discussions will progress beyond the current stage or that any transaction will materialise as a result of such discussions.   Why am I interested in SMG? My personal view is that at $0.315, given a potential share transaction scenario, the risk reward seems favourable. Please refer to my basis and the risks as highlighted below: 1) Past […]

Analyst 2 Nov 20

City Dev falls nine out of ten sessions; near Mar 2020 low amid oversold RSI (2 Nov 2020)

Dear all, Since 19 Oct 2020, City Dev has fallen nine out of ten sessions with a cumulative drop of 20%. City Dev closed at $6.20. Let’s take a look why this City Dev has slumped and why it has caught my attention.   Reasons why City Dev has underperformed The below list of likely reasons is not exhaustive. It is just based on my personal view what may have caused City Dev’s underperformance. 1) Concerns over how much support is required by Sincere Property Group Concerns over how much support is required by Sincere Property Group (“Sincere”) flare up […]

Chart 3_S&P500 chart 6 Sep 19

S&P500 at 2,979 – limited potential upside (8 Sep 19)

With reference to my earlier write-up (click HERE) titled “Why am I cautious going into July…”, July was coincidentally the peak for S&P500. Hang Seng touched an intraday high of 29,008 on 4 Jul 2019 before slumping 4,108 points to an intraday low of 24,900 on 15 Aug 2019 (Hang Seng closed at 26,691 on 6 Sep 2019.) Personally, given the current market levels and information, I am not comfortable to raise my current percentage invested from 53% to significant levels (say >80%). Why am I cautious in the market? Do read on…   Factors supporting my cautious basis Above […]

Sunpower chart 20 Dec 18

Sunpower – price action & bullish divergence warrant a closer look (20 Dec 18)

Dear readers, Some of you have sent me emails to express concerns whether I am still maintaining my blog, as I have not posted an article in the past couple of months. Thanks for the concern and emails. It warms my heart that there are readers who are actively following my blog. Something happened to my family which caused me unable to post articles on a timely basis. (My clients are still receiving some periodic short writeups on the market and specific companies during this period) Anyway, I am glad to be back to work this week! This week, Sunpower’s […]

Chart 3 Sunpower chart 24 Oct 18

Sunpower slips into bear market territory – Buying opportunity or falling knife? (24 Oct 18)

This week, Sunpower attracts me due partly to the industry which it is in; the recent US$180m investments made by DCP and CDH into Sunpower whose market cap is only around US$206m, and the considerable 40% share price decline since hitting an intra-day high of $0.645 on 28 Jun 2018 to trade $0.385 today. Let’s take a look.   Description of Sunpower Based on Sunpower’s description, it is an environmental protection solutions specialist in proprietary energy saving and clean power technologies. It has two main business segments, viz. Manufacturing & Services (“M&S”) and Green Investments (“GI”). M&S segment comprise of […]

Table 1_Top five stocks with the highest estimated total potential returns 30 May 18

STI slumps 198 points after hitting a decade high of 3,642 on 2 May! (30 May 18)

With reference to my market outlook HERE posted on 11 May 2018, I mentioned at that time that I have started to sell into strength, as I am cautious on the overall market. Clients would have been aware / notified that I have already reduced my percentage invested to <60% early last week. STI has since dropped 126 points from 3,570 on 11 May 2018 to close 3,444 on 30 May 2018. For those who wish to accumulate on weakness, I have compiled a list of stocks here, using Bloomberg’s data as of 30 May 2018. The criteria for compilation […]

S&P500 chart as of 20 Mar 18

Markets – whipsawed by multiple events (20 Mar 18)

Our markets have been whipsawed by multiple events, such as rising inflation expectations and bond yields, protectionism (for e.g. Trade tariffs), upcoming FOMC meeting and sudden key personnel changes in the White House etc… How should we react or trade in current market conditions? Let’s take a look at the market events and the indices’ charts…   5 observations on the market Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s first FOMC meeting tonight. A 25bps rate hike is almost certainly expected but markets will be scrutinising what the new Fed Chairman will be saying during the conference; Based on an article on Washington […]

Table 1_Top five stocks with the highest total potential return 10 Nov 17

Ernest’s market opinion (10 Nov 17)

Dear all STI has closed at 3,420, in line with my view that STI’s chart continues to be bullish (refer to my technical write-up on STI HERE), despite the elevated RSI.   1. Equities – still favour over bonds over 3-5 year time frame but… Personally, notwithstanding the market rally, I believe that over the long term, equities are still likely to outperform bonds and cash. Having said that, I am not telling all my clients to plough everything into stocks NOW, given that in the near term, there may not be significant catalysts to push the market higher by […]

oxley-chart-as-of-13-sep-16

Oxley’s base building between $0.380 – 0.460 (13 Sep 16)

Dear all Based on Chart 1 below, Oxley seems to be an interesting stock. Last Fri (9 Sep 2016) was the T+6th day after its sharp rally. The recent price decline from $0.445 was accompanied with weak volume. (My personal guess is that contra players have been taking profit for the past few days). Broadly speaking, the stock has been stuck in a one-year trading range between $0.380 – 0.460. ADX has declined from an unsustainable 69 on 2 Aug 2016 to around 37 on 13 Sep 2016. All the exponential moving averages (“EMAs”) have stopped their declines with 20D, […]