Ernest Lim's investing blog

Unique insights into SGX small caps

Starhub – all time oversold, price near five year low (22 Nov 16)

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Starhub has plunged 30.3% from an intraday high of $3.96 on 3 Aug 2016 to trade $2.76 today. This is near a five year low.   What has caused the sharp fall in Starhub? Some of the possible reasons may be 1. Market is pricing almost a 100% chance of a rate hike in Dec. Furthermore, there seems to be rising interest rate expectations on faster than expected tightening in 2017; 2. After IDA’s announcement on 16 Nov 2016 that MyRepublic and Australian telco TPG Telecom will get to participate in the 4G mobile airwave auction slated to complete by […]

Trading is easy, isn’t it? [20 Nov 16] (Part 1)

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If somebody says his profession is a trader, what will you immediately think of? I believe most people would immediately flash across thoughts of fine dining, fast cars and effortless work. Is this really the life of a trader? If it is so easy, why don’t we all jump onto the “trader” bandwagon? In my opinion, trading or punting without consistent profits and plans is easy but it is not recommended. It is akin to gambling. If we are referring to trading as a consistent means of earning our keep, it is not easy. Ask any professional trader and nine […]

Ernest’s market outlook (11 Nov 16)

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Dear readers, Notwithstanding most experts’ dire predictions that Dow may plunge as much as 10% on Trump’s win, Dow closed at a record high AFTER Trump’s win! Read on for more.   S&P500 Index Just to recap what I have mentioned on 28 Oct 2016 (see HERE), I wrote “S&P500 closed below 100D EMA (currently 2,136) yesterday. As mentioned previously, S&P500 has not closed below its 100D EMA for three consecutive trading days since 1 Mar 2016. Thus, the price action around its 100D EMA is worth watching. After forming a death cross, 21D EMA is moving apart from 50D […]

Chiwayland – potential upside chart breakout (4 Nov 16)

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Chiwayland has dropped from an intraday high of $0.177 on 10 Oct 2016 to trade to an intraday low of $0.151 on 2 Nov 2016. It closed at $0.162 on 4 Nov 2016. Based on Chart 1, Chiwayland seems to have staged an upside breakout above $0.157 on strong volumes, the highest since 11 Oct 2016 (which coincided with the date of UOB Kayhian’s unrated report – see below). All the exponential moving averages (“EMAs”) are rising which indicate an uptrend. Although ADX is declining, it is still at elevated area at around 39 with positive placed directional indicators, indicative […]

Ernest’s market outlook (28 Oct 16)

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Dear readers, Notwithstanding my cautious stance in the general market, I have raised my allocation from 35% on 14 Oct 2016 to around 89% on 28 Oct 16 on stocks with potential near term catalysts. Read on my technical outlook on the markets.   S&P500 Index Just to recap what I have mentioned on 14 Oct 2016 (see HERE), I wrote “it is alarming to see that 21D and 50D exponential moving averages (“EMAs) are trending lower with 21D EMA forming a death cross with 50D EMA. 100D EMA started to turn flat and S&P500 closed below 100D EMA yesterday. […]

Sapphire – profit taking likely to taper off (17 Oct 2016)

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Sapphire reached $0.365 on 10 Oct 2016, one bid below my measured eventual technical target of $0.370. Since then, it has fallen 14% to $0.315 on 17 Oct 2016. Will it continue to slide further?   Chart outlook Sapphire has largely been trading within the range of $0.240 – $0.305 since 25 Jan 2016 before it broke out on 6 Oct 2016 above $0.305 on heavy volume. As previously mentioned on my 19 Sep 2016 Sapphire’s write-up (click HERE), the upside breakout above $0.305 points to an eventual measured technical target of $0.370. This was attained when Sapphire reached $0.365 […]

Ernest’s market outlook (14 Oct 16)

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Dear readers, Although my market outlook is a biweekly issue, the technical outlook for some technical indices has deteriorated and I view it timely to update my clients. See below.   S&P500 Index Just to recap what I have mentioned on 7 Oct 2016 (see HERE), I wrote “all the exponential moving averages (“EMAs) are converging and trending higher. ADX has slipped from 22 on 23 Sep 2016 to 20 on 7 Oct 2016, indicative of a lack of trend. Indicators are neutral and stuck in a range. Although the trend continues to be an uptrend until proven otherwise, my […]

GSS Energy spiked 67% since 1 Sep 2016! What gives? (10 Oct 16)

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GSS Energy’s (“GSS”) recent share spike and chart action caught my attention. GSS has surged 67% from $0.048 on 1 Sep 2016 to close $0.080 on 10 Oct 2016. It has just moved above its 200D exponential moving average (“EMA”) for the first time in 16 months! Furthermore, GSS announced that its subsidiary was awarded a KSO contract from Pertamina for oil production for the Trembul Operation Area. In view of the chart and company’s developments, I arranged a meetup with Mr Sydney Yeung, CEO of GSS Energy for an exclusive discussion of the company’s business developments and prospects. Below […]

Ernest’s market outlook (7 Oct 16)

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Dear readers, The recent selective small cap rally seems to be as hot as the China property market! For those who have not benefitted in the recent selective market rally, is it too late to jump on the bandwagon now? Let us take a look at the various broad market indices first.   S&P500 Index Just to recap what I have mentioned on 23 Sep 2016 (see HERE), I wrote “S&P500’s volatility has increased since 9 Sep 2016. RSI has increased around 32 on 9 Sep 2016 to 52 (a neutral level) on 23 Sep 2016. All the exponential moving […]

Sino Grandness – on the verge of testing critical supports (26 Sep 16)

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Sino Grandness has slumped 45% from an intraday high of $0.785 on 7 Jun 2016 to $0.435 on 26 Sep 2016. Sino Grandness has broken its support at $0.450 on 22 Sep 2016 with a larger than average volume. It is on the verge of testing an important support around $0.415 – 0.425. If this breaks with volume and on a sustained basis, it will be pretty bearish. Based on Chart 1 below, it remains entrenched within a strong downtrend with death crosses forming on its 21D and 200D EMA and 50D and 100D EMA. RSI is trading at around […]