Ernest Lim's investing blog

Unique insights into SGX small caps

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Sinopec falls 33% since last year; nears 19-year oversold level (14 May 19)

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Dear all This week, Sinopec (00386.HK) caught my attention with its 33% fall since 21 May 2018. With its sharp fall, it has become extremely oversold with RSI at 15.1. Given the basis below, my personal view is that Sinopec may be presenting a favourable risk reward setup for a long trade. Do take a look at the basis and more importantly, the risks inherent in such trades.   My personal basis a) Attractive valuations At HKD5.63, Sinopec is trading at approximately 10.3x current PE and 0.8x P/BV. These valuations are attractive as compared to its 10-year average PE and […]

Sembmarine – leveraged play among oil companies (29 Apr 19)

el15

Dear all, This week, Sembcorp marine (“SMM”) caught my attention amid positive industry reports and its strengthening chart. I have started to accumulate SMM with my usual take profit target of a few bids, if any. Let’s look at the basis, and importantly, the investment risks.   Basis a) Analysts are turning positive Based on Figure 1 below, average analyst target price for SMM is around $1.93, representing a potential capital appreciation of around 12% from the current price $1.72. It is noteworthy that JP Morgan has turned positive on SMM last month with a target price of $2.10, after […]

Qualcomm – extremely overbought after a 74% rally within 3 months! (23 Apr 19)

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Dear readers, This week, Qualcomm caught my attention as it has appreciated approximately 74% from US$49.10 to trade at US$85.62 in less than 3 months. This is due in part to the favourable announcement that Qualcomm and Apple have reached a multi-year settlement agreement (click HERE for more information)   Why is it interesting? Personally, I think Qualcomm may be a potential short target with a favourable risk to reward proposition with a take profit of a few bids, base mainly on a technical perspective.   Basis to short a) With reference to Chart 1 below, Qualcomm is on a […]

Best World – down 47% in 2 months! Buying opportunity or falling knife? (12 Apr 19)

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With reference to my 19 Sep 2018 write-up (click HERE), Best World has appreciated approximately 147% from $1.35 on 19 Sep 2018 to touch an intra-day high of $3.33 on 13 Feb 2019. At that time, Best World has dropped out of my watchlist after its incredible rally. However, with its recent 47% tumble from its all-time intra-day high $3.33 on 13 Feb 2019 to trade $1.76 on 12 Apr 2019, it seems interesting again. Is this a buying opportunity or falling knife?   Why is it interesting? a) Valuations are more attractive now Based on Bloomberg (see Table 1), Best World […]

Chipotle Mexican Grill reaches all time overbought after an 84% rally in less than 4 months! (1 Apr 19)

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Dear readers, This week, Chipotle Mexican Grill (“Chip”) has caught my attention with its blistering 84% surge since 24 Dec 2018 and its US$100 rally in the past 16 trading days.   First, what does Chip do? Based on Chip’s company website (click HERE), it is an American chain of fast casual restaurants and has nearly 2,500 restaurants as of 31 Dec 2018 in the U.S., Canada, France, Germany and UK. It is the only restaurant company of its size that owns and operates all its restaurants. Its market capitalisation amounts to US$19.6b.   Why is it interesting? Personally, I think […]

S&P500 logged its largest one day fall since Jan. Buy more, or head to the exit? (27 Mar 2019)

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Dear readers, Last Fri, S&P500 logged its largest one day fall since 3 Jan 2019, due in part to the weak European PMI and the yield curve inversion between U.S. 3-month bill and 10-year note yields. At the time of writing this, Dow closed 0.55% higher on Tues as U.S. 10 year bond yields stabilise. Is last Fri’s fall the precursor to something more serious? Or it is a false alarm?   First things first, what are the reasons for the sharp rally since late Dec? S&P500 has rallied approximately 20.1%, or 471 points from the intra-day low of 2,347 […]

Hong Fok hits 10-year overbought level and up 12 out of 13 trading days! (19 Mar 19)

el15

This week, Hong Fok catches my attention this week because a) It has risen approximately 33% in 12 out of the past 13 trading days from an intraday low of $0.685 on 28 Feb 2019 to close $0.910 today. It is noteworthy the 13th day is at an unchanged level. In other words, Hong Fok has not had a down day since 28 Feb 2019; b) At $0.910, this is near its 25 Oct 2015 high of around $0.91-0.920. The previous high which is higher than $0.920 occurred in Sep 2014. I.e. Hong Fok is trading near a four plus […]

Hi-P – Chart looks interesting with rising ADX, amid positively placed DI (21 Feb 19)

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This week, Hi-P caught my attention due to its chart. It last trades at $0.990. Day range 0.985 – 1.00. Let’s take a look. Basis below 1.Chart looks interesting with rising ADX, amid positively placed DI Hi-P has been trading in a tight range $0.885 – 0.960 since 8 Jan 2019 and broke out with strong volume on 11 Feb 2019. ADX has been rising to trade 31.6 amid positively placed DI, indicative of a trend. RSI last trades 57.9. Today is T+8 of 11 Feb upmove. There has been some price weakness on 15 & 18 Feb as I […]

Sapphire – disposal of Mancala, implications and updates (30 Dec 16)

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On the last trading day of the year, Sapphire Corp announced that it has entered into conditional sale and purchase agreements (collectively, the “SPAs”) with each of China Vanadium Titano-Magnetite Mining Company Limited (“CVT”) and Toe Teow Heng (“TTH”) relating to its mining services business, Mancala. Is this a positive or negative development? What are the implications? Let’s take a closer look.   Disposal of Mancala and its implications Subject to the terms and conditions of the SPAs, CVT and TTH have agreed to acquire 49% and 32% of the issued and paid up capital of Mancala Holdings for a […]