Ernest Lim's investing blog

Unique insights into SGX small caps

target

Hatten Land – extremely oversold RSI 15; Analyst TP: $0.435 vs closing price $0.183 (23 May 17)

el15

Hatten Land has dropped 39% from an intraday high of $0.300 on 28 Feb 2017 to close $0.183 on 23 May 2017. What has caused the sharp decline? Where is the bottom?   Possible reasons for the decline Personally, I believe the recent decline may be attributed in part to the following: a) Hatten reported losses for its 3QFY17 results due mainly to the RM87.8m expenses incurred in relation to the professional fees and acquisition costs arising from the Reverse Takeover exercise (“RTO”). It is noteworthy that these expenses are once off and non-cash in nature [click HERE for Hatten’s […]

Ernest’s market opinion (19 May 17)

el15

Dear all Below is my personal opinion on the market. As previously mentioned to my clients, I aim to reduce my percentage invested in stocks (currently around 130% invested), especially the non-performing stocks, with no immediate near term catalysts. I am cautious on the market in the next 1-2 months because a) The large market run up year to date. STI has appreciated approximately 12% YTD and 22% for the past one year; b) June is likely to be a quiet month as most companies have reported results and some of the blue chips have already ex dividend. i.e. limited […]

Banyan Tree – collaborations with AccorHotels and Vanke may spark re-rating (17 Apr 17)

el15

Banyan Tree recently clinched two noteworthy strategic partnership with AccorHotels and Vanke on 8 Dec 2016 and 23 Jan 2017 respectively. Since 23 Jan 2017, Banyan has largely traded between $0.465 – 0.530. It closed at $0.510 on 17 Apr 2017. If a company can catch the eyes of China’s largest property player Vanke and Europe’s largest hotel group / the world’s fifth largest hotel group AccorHotels, there must be some merit to it. I have managed to fix an exclusive 1-1 meeting with Mr Eddy See, Group MD and Mr Clement Ong, Head of Strategic Planning & Investment (“Management”) […]

Golden Energy – 4th largest in Indonesia but share price lags Geo Energy by a mile! (27 Mar 17)

el15

Golden Energy (“GEAR”) has slumped 21% from $0.655 on 12 Dec 2016 to $0.515 on 27 Mar 2017. Compare this with a 47% rally in Geo Energy’s share price over the same period. Moreover, GEAR has slumped 10% post its results notwithstanding the strong set of results. Why is this so? I have managed to fix an exclusive 1-1 meetup with Mark Zhou, Head of investments, GEAR (“Management”) to find out more about the company’s business and prospects.   Key takeaways from the meetup Bullish on FY17F Management continues to be bullish about its outlook. Based on Chart 1 below, Indonesia, […]

Laggard stocks: Chart outlook for ISOTeam, Midas and Sapphire (17 Mar 17)

el15

Notwithstanding the rally in the equity market, there are some stocks which continue to be laggards and are consolidating around their key support areas. If the market continues to stay buoyant, it may be a matter of time before funds rotate to the following laggard stocks, namely ISOTeam, Midas and Sapphire.   1.ISOTeam closed unchanged $0.390. Day range $0.390 – 0.395. Ave analyst: $0.600 ISOTeam has been testing the support area of around $0.375 – 0.390 for the past four days. Short term exponential moving averages (“EMA”) are moving lower with 20D EMA crossing below 50D EMA. It is fortunate […]

Midas issued positive profit alert! (24 Feb 17)

el15

Dear all, Midas issued a positive profit alert yesterday. It cited “…based on the Board’s preliminary review of the unaudited management accounts of the Group for the year ended 31 December 2016, the Group expects to record a substantial increase by over 70% in its profit attributable to owners of the Company for the year ended 31 December 2016 as compared to the same period of previous year. Such increase was mainly attributable to the contribution from our Aluminium Stretched Plates Division which we completed the acquisition on 27 July 2016.” What does this mean?   My personal take on […]

Golden Energy – Is this a laggard coal play? (17 Feb 17)

el15

Pursuant to Golden Energy’s (“GEAR”) compliance placement at $0.670, GEAR has not closed above $0.670 since its debut on 12 Dec 2016. In fact, GEAR has slumped 21% from $0.655 on 12 Dec 2016 to $0.520 on 17 Feb 2017. This underperformance is even more glaring as compared to +24% appreciation in Geo Energy’s share price over the same period. Is GEAR a laggard coal play? Let’s take a look at some of the possible investment merits and risks.   Investment merits Targeted surge in targeted production volume GEAR has four mining concessions with the largest mining concession in BIB […]

Is Midas a recovery play in 2017? (3 Feb 17)

el15

Midas has recently announced contracts after contracts. Based on Table 1 below, it is especially evident that Midas is gaining traction (particularly from 23 Jun 2016 onwards) in winning orders from clients, especially from its 32.5% stake in CRRC Nanjing Puzhen Rail Transport Co., Ltd. (“NPRT”). However, investors do not seem to share this optimism as Midas has fallen approximately 12% from $0.260 on 23 Jun 2016 to $0.230 on 3 Feb 2017. Table 1: Ernest’s compilation of contracts announced since 2015 Source: SGX; Ernest’s compilation Is the market overly pessimistic on Midas? I am fortunate to meet Mr. Patrick […]

Ernest’s market outlook (27 Jan 17)

el15

Dear all, Happy Chinese New Year! How is your Rooster Year so far? S&P500 and STI reached near, or at my near-term resistances. What’s next?   S&P500 Just to recap what I have mentioned on 13 Jan 2017 (see HERE), I wrote “It is clear that S&P500 continues to on an uptrend amid rising EMAs. S&P500 closed at 2,275 on 13 Jan 2017. Since 8 Dec 2016, S&P500 has been consolidating between 2,238 – 2,278 and it seems to be staging an upside breakout. A sustained break above 2,278 / below 2,238 points to an eventual measured technical target 2,318 […]

Dairy Farm – hits 18 month high, all-time overbought since 1990! (27 Jan 17)

el15

Dairy Farm hits another 18-month high on 27 Jan 2017. It has risen consecutively for the past six trading days and has surged 13.3% from an intraday low of $7.28 on 20 Jan 2017 to $8.25 on 27 Jan 2017. This has significantly outperformed the STI, as STI was only higher by 2.0% over the same period. How high can Dairy Farm go? Read on below for its chart analysis…   Chart analysis Based on Chart 1 below, Dairy Farm is on a strong uptrend, as depicted by its upwards sloping exponential moving averages (EMAs). All the EMAs are rising. […]