Ernest Lim's investing blog

Unique insights into SGX small caps

Singapore

Singapore – Asia’s worst equity market YTD, any opportunities ahead? (29 Oct 20)

el15

Dear all It is less than a week from the U.S. election. U.S. markets are understandably jittery. S&P500 has fallen 316 points, or 8.9% from its intraday high of 3,550 on 12 Oct 2020 to touch an intraday low 3,234 on 30 Oct 20. In fact, S&P500 has tumbled 195 points or 5.6% this week. S&P500 closed at 3,270 on 30 Oct. The media has written extensively on the risks surrounding U.S. election since months ago hence the election event risk is hardly a new one. Examples of risks which media has written about is the possibility on contested election […]

Recent weakness provides accumulation opportunities (9 Sep 20)

el15

Dear all Based on Table 1 below, U.S. indices have fallen between 5.5% – 10% from the close of 2 Sep to 8 Sep. Nasdaq led the decline with a 10% drop. These are interesting times indeed! Why do I say so? Read on below. Table 1: Performance of various indices from 2 Sep to *8 Sep 20 Source: Ernest’s compilations (*STI and Hang Seng are based on 9 Sep closing prices) In my personal opinion, this recent U.S. market weakness provides accumulation opportunities for the well prepared and for those who have been waiting on the side-lines to accumulate […]

Stocks sorted by total potential return (7 Sep 2020)

el15

Dear all U.S. markets have fallen sharply with Nasdaq dropping almost 1,200 points or 10% from an intraday high of 12,074 on 2 Sep to an intraday low of 10,876 last Fri. For example, Apple Inc. has lost $219b in market cap from the close of 1 Sep through 3 Sep which is larger than the market cap of Exxon Mobil Corp., for long the world’s largest company! In view of the recent decline, some clients have asked me which are the stocks that they can look at. Below is my compilation of the top ten stocks and the bottom […]

Starburst – building order books; bright outlook (24 Aug 2020)

el15

In May 2019, I met Starburst’s Managing and Executive Director Mr Yap Tin Foo. Since Mar 2020, Starburst has been on a roll in winning contracts and I believe it is an opportune time to meet Mr Yap again. Despite Mr Yap’s busy schedule, he agrees to meet me on 1-1 basis to share his company’s business operations and prospects. Below are some of my takeaways from my discussion with him and from its recent results briefing.   Company description Quoting from Starburst’s press release, it is an engineering specialist in a niche industry, and designs, fabricates, installs and maintains […]

Navigating Depressions and Great Recessions (Real Estate Edition, 8 May 20)

el15

This write-up was reproduced with permission from Ray’s Estate Clinic, written by Founder, Raymond Chng. Please refer to the end of the article for more information on Raymond. We are currently in unprecedented times (as of writing in April 2020). Covid-19 is upon us as a global pandemic which will go down in history books as the gravest health crisis mankind ever faced in this century. Over the past few weeks, I had the fortune to converse and interview numerous Seniors (our Merdeka & Pioneer Generation) whom I knew for some time already. The wiser generation I interviewed range from […]

STI – to head towards 3,390 points in 1Q2020? (25 Dec 19)

el15

Merry Xmas! As we approach end 2019, most market strategists are putting their market estimates for end 2020. Although I do not profess to be in the league of these market strategists, just for fun, I am expecting STI to head towards 3,390 in 1Q2020. STI closed at 3,222 on 24 Dec 2019. I have outlined my basis and the risks involved.   Factors for my bullish basis a) Chart looks positive after bullish break Based on Chart 1 below, STI has staged a bullish break above its flag formation on 12 Dec 2019. Notwithstanding below average volume for the […]

Unusual – Challenging its key resistance $0.270 – 0.280 with volume expansion (4 Nov 2019)

el15

Last Friday, Unusual Limited (“Unusual”) caught my attention. It is testing its key resistance $0.270 – 0.280, accompanied by an increase in volume for the past three days with above average volume in two out of the past three days. It closed at $0.275 on 4 Nov 2019. Day range 0.270 – 0.280. Furthermore, as its 2QFY20F results are just around the corner, it may be an opportune time to take a look at this stock.   Interesting points A) Chart looks positive with strengthening indicators and volume Based on Chart 1 below, Unusual has been challenging its key resistance […]

S&P500 at 2,979 – limited potential upside (8 Sep 19)

el15

With reference to my earlier write-up (click HERE) titled “Why am I cautious going into July…”, July was coincidentally the peak for S&P500. Hang Seng touched an intraday high of 29,008 on 4 Jul 2019 before slumping 4,108 points to an intraday low of 24,900 on 15 Aug 2019 (Hang Seng closed at 26,691 on 6 Sep 2019.) Personally, given the current market levels and information, I am not comfortable to raise my current percentage invested from 53% to significant levels (say >80%). Why am I cautious in the market? Do read on…   Factors supporting my cautious basis Above […]

Hang Seng & STI have fallen close to 2,900 & 250 points in one month! (28 May 19)

el15

Dear readers, Asian markets have fallen quite a bit in the past one month. For example, Hang Seng has fallen close to 2,900 points since touching a high of 30,280 on 15 Apr to trade 27,391 which is the low last seen in January. STI has fallen almost 250 points from an intraday high of 3,415 on 29 Apr to close 3,165 today. Looking at the indices may be deceiving as many shares have fallen a lot. For example, based on Table 1 below, most stocks have fallen at least 10%, with Sembmarine tumbling almost 17% in less than a […]

SIA nears 10-year low price amid 10-year low valuations! (26 May 19)

el15

Dear all This week, our National Carrier SIA caught my attention with its 10% fall in the past three months to close $9.17. At $9.17, it has fallen to close to the lows last seen in Oct 2018 and May 2009. In fact, when I informed my clients on SIA on 23-24 May, it was trading around $9.10-9.11 which is the lowest last seen in the past 10 years! Given the basis below, my personal view is that SIA may be presenting a favourable risk reward setup for a long trade. Do take a look at the basis and more […]