Ernest Lim's investing blog

Unique insights into SGX small caps

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S&P500 closed at record high! What should we do? Buy or sell? (9 Aug 2021)

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Dear all S&P500 has clocked its sixth consecutive month of gains in July 2021. This is the longest stretch since 2018. Furthermore, S&P500 has touched a record high to close at 4,437 on 6 Aug 2021. In the next 3 months, are markets poised for higher highs? Or should we be prudent and take some profit off the table first? Let’s take a look.   Ernest’s personal market observations a) Lack of catalysts to push the market higher Since Covid last year, markets, especially U.S. markets, have been able to push higher due partly to the combination of ultra-easy monetary policies; […]

STI – Will it head for new YTD high after S&P500 clocked its 7th consecutive day of rally? (6 Jul 2021)

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Dear all S&P500 and Nasdaq clinch fresh record highs last Friday with S&P500 clocking in seven consecutive days of gains in its longest winning streak since August 2020. Despite the roaring U.S. markets, Singapore Straits Times Index (“STI”) has slipped almost 100 points from its 2021 intraday high of 3,237 on 30 Apr 2021 to close 3,141 on 5 Jul 2021. Can STI exceed 3,237 for 2HFY2021? Most strategists believe so, as their year-end targets for STI are easily above 3,237. Let’s look at the possible reasons why analysts are positive on our Singapore market.   Reasons to be optimistic […]

Koda – Clear beneficiary of the surge in home furnishing spending trend (1 Jun 21)

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Since 20 Aug 2020, Avarga has more than doubled from $0.146 to close $0.305 on 1 Jun 2021. Avarga’s strength is likely attributed to its 69.7% stake in Taiga (Taiga is Canada’s largest wholesale distributor of building materials, such as lumber, panels, doors, engineered wood, roofing and others). Taiga’s business has been flourishing due to the strength in home furnishings and the housing market in Canada and US. By extension, Koda may be another proxy to benefit from the surge in home furnishing spending trend. It is noteworthy that Koda is an Original Design Manufacturer / Original Equipment Manufacturer to […]

Thai Bev may be ripe for a bounce; BeerCo IPO potential near term catalyst (29 Mar 21)

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Thai Bev has slumped 14% from an intraday high of $0.850 on 8 Feb to close $0.735 on 29 Mar 21. It is looking interesting again as it hovers around its strong confluence of supports from $0.715 – 0.725. Personally, it seems ripe for a technical bounce. Besides the technical outlook, Thai Bev has the highest potential upside among the STI component stocks with a potential capital upside of around 21%! What else is interesting about Thai Bev? Read on for more.   Interesting points on Thai Bev a) Highest potential capital upside for STI component stock With reference to […]

7 reasons why Private Resale Condos may be better than new launch for HDB upgraders (6 Mar 21)

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This write-up was reproduced with permission from Ray’s Estate Clinic, written by Founder, Raymond Chng. Please refer to the end of the article for more information on Raymond. Since 2018, we have been sharing with our clients and readers that resale properties are good options. Today, as of the date of writing, there are still a handful of readers asking us if resale properties can be profitable. The simple answer is – Yes! There are considerations that property buyers should note about New Launch properties, in particular for HDB upgraders. Most HDB upgraders who are selling off their BTOs would […]

Yangzijiang looks interesting; tests support $0.940 – 0.980 (8 Feb 21)

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Yangzijiang (“YZJ”) has weakened approximately 13% from $1.11 on 13 Jan 2021 to close $0.970 on 5 Feb 2021. It has significantly underperformed STI (STI only dropped around 3% over the same period) and is the top STI constituent stocks with the highest potential return (see HERE). Why is it interesting? Read on for more…   Interesting points on YZJ a) Orders are likely to improve in FY21F Based on DBS Research 3 Dec 2020 report, the surge in China (Export) Containerized Freight Index (highest since Mar 2015) and the tripling of the Baltic Dry Index may prompt ship owners […]

Jiutian – proxy to economic recovery and exposure to EV sector (2 Dec 20)

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Dear all Since my write-up “Singapore – Asia’s worst equity market YTD, any opportunities ahead?” posted on my blog on 1 Nov 2020 (click HERE) citing opportunities in our Singapore market, Singapore market (as represented by STI) has clocked in its best monthly return in Nov 2020 since May 2009, up 15.8%! In the U.S., the strong market sentiment is filtering to its small mid cap space with Russell 2000 hitting record high last week. For those readers who are looking for Singapore small caps which are overlooked by the market, Jiutian Chemical (“Jiutian”) may be an interesting company to […]

China Railway Construction (01186.HK) – Bargain buy, or value trap? (22 Sep 2020)

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China Railway Construction (“CRCC”) recently caught my attention as it has tumbled approximately 44% from an intraday high of $9.99 on 5 Mar 2020 to close HKD5.64 on 21 Sep 2020. Is this a bargain buy, or a value trap? Let’s take a look.   First up, a description of CRCC Quoting from its 1HFY20 results, CRCC’s businesses cover a variety of construction, survey, design and consultation, manufacturing, real estate development, logistics and materials trading and other business with refined industry chain covering scientific research, planning, survey, design, construction, supervision and management, maintenance, operation, investment and financing, etc.   Six […]

Why Property Investors should look at the Private Resale Condo Segment (11 April 2020)

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This write-up was reproduced with permission from Ray’s Estate Clinic, written by Founder, Raymond Chng. Please refer to the end of the article for more information on Raymond. With the record number of new launch properties on the market in 2019 and 2020, all eyes have been on the new launch segment of the property market. Some new property buyers believe that they should buy new properties because they would be buying at the lowest price in the development, and therefore are more likely to make profits when the property obtains TOP. These same property buyers are afraid of buying […]

Hi-P – bearish engulfing candle forms after rising for 12 out of 15 days (29 Oct 2019)

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This week, Hi-P has caught my attention with its 33% surge from the intra-day low of $1.13 on 7 Oct 2019 to trade to an intra-day high of $1.50 on 29 Oct 2019. In addition, it has risen 12 out the past 15 trading days with RSI touching a recent high of 81.8 on 25 Oct 2019. Based on Hi-P’s chart, it seems to present a favourable risk to reward short trade. Please see the basis and more importantly, the risks.   Basis a) Hi-P trades above the higher analyst target price $1.32 Average analyst target price for Hi-P is […]