Ernest Lim's investing blog

Unique insights into SGX small caps

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Nasdaq has soared 14% in 1 month! Should we chase this rally? (30 Jan 23)

el15

Dear all It has been a busy January. As you are aware, I have kept my powder dry by taking it slow and easy in Dec and have taken some opportunistic positions amid the sell-off in Dec. Just to recap, with reference to my writeup published on 3 Dec (click HERE), where I mentioned that I am taking it slow and easy in Dec, S&P500 and STI fell by 5.9% and 1.2% respectively in Dec. In fact, S&P500 registered the worst Dec performance in four years. However, Hang Seng was still very resilient and jumped 6.4% in Dec on continual […]

Tianjin Pharma – A potential undervalued company, net cash; rides on favourable tailwinds (24 Dec 22)

el15

Dear all Last Friday, personal protection equipment (“PPE”) and glovemakers rallied as much as 3% – 36% in a single day (See Table 1 below). This outperformance may be attributed to concerns that the Covid situation in China may worsen with more infections, or may cause the appearance of new variants, which may spur demand for gloves and personal protection equipment. Table 1: SG glovemakers and PPE share price performance on Friday Source: Ernest’s manual compilations 23 Dec 22 Personally, besides PPE and glovemakers which may benefit, Tianjin Pharmaceutical Da Ren Tang Group (“T14”) may be another potential and perhaps […]

Nov has been a fantastic month for equities! What’s next? (3 Dec 22)

el15

Dear all With reference to my writeup published on 25 Oct (click HERE), where markets seem to be plagued with various negative news, I pointed out that Dow may have formed a bullish double bottom formation. In the writeup, I also featured Hang Seng tracker ETF (2800.HK) and UOB. My clients would have noticed my almost daily writeups on the stocks to consider taking a closer look as they hit lows in Oct. Below are only some of the stocks which I have featured on my blog in Oct and their performance. Table 1: Featured writeups on my blog in […]

Dow seems to have formed a bullish double bottom formation (25 Oct 2022)

el15

Dear all Talk to anyone and I guess at least 50% of them are shaking their heads. Some of their usual concerns are a) Anxieties on the economy and their jobs in 2023; b) Hit by inflationary pressures from rising costs ranging from food, fuel, electricity, cars and properties; c) Worries over their home mortgage as rates are soaring through the roof; d) Concerns on their portfolios whether there may be more losses ahead and etc… At the point of writing this article, Hang Seng closed -1,030 points lower, or -6.4% to close 15,181. Is it all doom and gloom? […]

SGX drops for 12th consecutive day, longest losing streak since IPO! (20 Oct 22)

el15

Dear all, Since 4 Oct 2022, SGX has fallen for 12 consecutive sessions, logging its longest losing streak since IPO in 2000! Over the past 12 sessions, SGX has lost a total of 12.5%, or $1.19 to close at $8.33 on 20 Oct 2022. It is noteworthy that STI has only fallen 3.7% over the same period. In addition, SGX’s RSI closed 13.3, the lowest since 2008!   The below is a sample of a stock alert / observation which I typically send to my clients on a regular basis. Readers who are interested can consider signing up at http://ernest15percent.com. […]

3 stocks, Comfort Delgro, Thai Bev and Wilmar trade at attractive valuations (11 Oct 22)

el15

Dear all Yesterday, Comfort Delgro, Thai Bev and Wilmar closed at $1.25; $0.565 and $3.64 respectively. Personally, they look interesting on several aspects. At $1.25, Comfort Delgro trades at levels last seen in 2011 and 2009! At $0.565, Thai Bev sits on a long term uptrend line established since 2009! At $3.64, Wilmar trades at approximately 2.2x and 3.0x standard deviations below its 10Y average PE and P/BV of around 13.8x and 1.1x respectively! Read on for more.   *Comfort Delgro* I have previously published a write-up on Comfort Delgro. Readers can refer to my write-up HERE for more information […]

Comfort Delgro drops back to pandemic lows! What gives? (30 Sep 22)

el15

On 1 Sep, it was announced that Comfort Delgro (“CD”) will drop out of STI after being first included in the STI on 28 Jul 2010. Subsequently, there was turmoil in United Kingdom (“UK”) gilts and currency as UK government led by Prime Minister Liz Truss unveiled a (surprisingly) GBP45b plan to reduce taxes (click HERE for more information). Although CD may see some near-term price weakness, at Friday’s close of $1.32 (CD touched an intraday low $1.29 at the point of writing this), I personally believe most of the negatives may have already been priced in. Why am I […]

Alert! Comfort Delgro – Multi-month base building & challenges key resistance – Looks bullish (6 Aug 22)

el15

Dear Readers, As you are aware, I usually will do a stock screening using Bloomberg at the start of each month. In the screening, Comfort Delgro (“CD”) pops out on attractive valuations via my metrics. This is not the first time that CD pops out in my screening. However, coupled with some of the points below, it may arguably be a good time to take a closer look in CD. Due to time constraints, this write-up will be brief and I will just raise some pertinent points and risks. For a more complete picture, it is advisable to refer to […]

Markets – diverging signs from technicals and fundamentals. What should we do? (4 Apr 2022)

el15

Dear all March has been a roller coaster month. Hong Kong market, represented by Hang Seng index touched multi-year lows around 14-15 Mar and has rebounded approximately 21% from the intraday lows. S&P500 performed well too with a third consecutive weekly rise. With reference to my writeup (click HERE) published on 6 Mar 2022, I mentioned that a) Odds are likely of a downward push first I mentioned that based on chart, odds are higher for a downwards move for both S&P500 and STI, to retest the previous support around 4,115 – 4,222 and 3,138 – 3,200 (with 3,175 a […]

AEM enters bear market despite analysts’ positive calls. What gives? (20 Feb 22)

el15

Dear all AEM has fallen 21% from an intraday high of $5.37 on 14 Dec 2021 to close $4.25 on 18 Feb 2022. What has happened in the last two months to warrant such falls? Based on Bloomberg, average analyst target price is around $6.72, representing a potential capital upside of around 58%. Is this the bottom for AEM, or will it fall further? Personally, I think AEM is worth a closer look at $4.20 – 4.30 region. Let’s take a look at its investment merits and risks.   First things first, what does AEM do? According to its company […]