Ernest Lim's investing blog

Unique insights into SGX small caps

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AEM enters bear market despite analysts’ positive calls. What gives? (20 Feb 22)

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Dear all AEM has fallen 21% from an intraday high of $5.37 on 14 Dec 2021 to close $4.25 on 18 Feb 2022. What has happened in the last two months to warrant such falls? Based on Bloomberg, average analyst target price is around $6.72, representing a potential capital upside of around 58%. Is this the bottom for AEM, or will it fall further? Personally, I think AEM is worth a closer look at $4.20 – 4.30 region. Let’s take a look at its investment merits and risks.   First things first, what does AEM do? According to its company […]

STI is up 10.1% YTD; may face profit taking in the near-term (16 Feb 2022)

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Dear all STI has been on a tear since the start of the year. With reference to my write-up published on 5 Jan 2022 (click HERE) citing that Asian indices are likely to outperform that of the U.S. market in 2022, STI has indeed notched strong year to date (“YTD”) gains of 10.1% to close 3,439 on 16 Feb 2022. This outperformance is especially stark if we compare it to S&P500’s -6.1% YTD returns. As I have shared with Lianhe Zaobao on 9 Feb 2022, I personally feel that our STI is overbought in the near term with several near-term […]

Sing Medical – Trades at a 13-month low price despite posting record 1HFY21 results (3 Feb 22)

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Dear all On 29 Dec 2020, I have published a write-up on Sing Medical (“SMG”) where I outlined that the risk reward on SMG seems favourable at $0.315, given a potential share transaction scenario (click HERE). Since 29 Dec, SMG rose approximately 32% to trade $0.415 – 0.420 on several occasions in Feb 2021. Subsequently, it dropped sharply in Apr 2021 when it announced that the potential share transaction has lapsed. Fast forward to 31 Jan 2022 and SMG closed at a 13-month low at $0.290. This is notwithstanding its sterling record 1HFY21 results announced in Aug last year where […]

GSS Energy – Electric mobility business takes shape (25 Jan 22)

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Dear all, With reference to my write-up published on 5 Jan 2022 (click HERE) citing that Asian indices are likely to outperform that of the U.S. market in 2022, our Asian indices, viz. Hang Seng and STI have outperformed the U.S. market significantly (See Table 1 below). U.S. S&P500 notched a 6.4% decline whereas Hang Seng and STI registered a 9.0% and 4.2% gain respectively since my write-up. Table 1: S&P500, Hang Seng and STI 2021 performance since 5 Jan 2022 Source: Ernest’s compilation Given the outperformance, are there still pockets of opportunities in our Singapore market? The short answer […]

Will Singapore stocks outperform U.S. stocks in 2022? (5 Jan 2022)

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Dear all With reference to my market outlook published on 7 Nov (see HERE) citing our Singapore market may face near term profit taking, STI dropped 201 points, or 6.6% from 3,242 on 5 Nov to close at 3,041 on 30 Nov. As we start 2022, various investment banks and research houses have put forth their views on how the various markets will perform. In this write-up, I will share how the markets have performed in 2021 and my market outlook in 2022.   How did the markets perform in 2021? Based on Table 1 below, it is evident that […]

STI – having closed at a record YTD high, will it continue higher? (7 Nov 2021)

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Dear all With reference to my market outlook published on 3 Oct (see HERE) citing opportunities in our Singapore market, STI has soared 191 points, or 6.3% from 3,051 on 1 Oct to close at a year to date high 3,242 on 5 Nov. Will STI continue to march higher, or will there be some profit taking?   Very briefly, my personal view is It is likely that STI may face some profit taking in the near term, attributable in part to the following factors: a) With reference to Figure 1 below, MSCI Singapore index will undergo a rebalancing in […]

3 interesting charts to take note: GSS Energy, China Sunsine and Sing Medical (28 Oct 2021)

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Dear all With reference to my market outlook published on 3 Oct 2021 (see HERE) where I cited opportunities in our Singapore market, our Singapore market (represented by STI) has jumped 154 points, or 5.1% since 1 Oct. Amid the recent strength, is it too late to plough into the markets? Are there still stocks who may have further upside? Based on my personal chart observation, GSS Energy, China Sunsine and Sing Medical have interesting / bullish charts’ setups which may be interesting to take a look.   GSS Energy Based on Chart 1 below, GSS seems to be on […]

S&P500 closed at record high! What should we do? Buy or sell? (9 Aug 2021)

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Dear all S&P500 has clocked its sixth consecutive month of gains in July 2021. This is the longest stretch since 2018. Furthermore, S&P500 has touched a record high to close at 4,437 on 6 Aug 2021. In the next 3 months, are markets poised for higher highs? Or should we be prudent and take some profit off the table first? Let’s take a look.   Ernest’s personal market observations a) Lack of catalysts to push the market higher Since Covid last year, markets, especially U.S. markets, have been able to push higher due partly to the combination of ultra-easy monetary policies; […]

Markets are “bubblish”, or aren’t they? (5 Apr 2021)

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Dear all Markets have been on a tear for the past five months. Since my write-up published on 1 Nov 2020, citing opportunities in our Singapore market (click HERE for the write-up), STI has soared 786 points, or 32.4% from 2,424 on 30 Oct 2020 to close 3,210 on 5 Apr 2021 (intra-day high today was 3,212). At the time of writing this, S&P500 futures are trading at 4,040, translating to around 24% gain over the same period. In fact, STI is the 2nd best performing market for 1Q2021 amongst 18 global benchmarks. Are markets in the midst of a […]

Thai Bev may be ripe for a bounce; BeerCo IPO potential near term catalyst (29 Mar 21)

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Thai Bev has slumped 14% from an intraday high of $0.850 on 8 Feb to close $0.735 on 29 Mar 21. It is looking interesting again as it hovers around its strong confluence of supports from $0.715 – 0.725. Personally, it seems ripe for a technical bounce. Besides the technical outlook, Thai Bev has the highest potential upside among the STI component stocks with a potential capital upside of around 21%! What else is interesting about Thai Bev? Read on for more.   Interesting points on Thai Bev a) Highest potential capital upside for STI component stock With reference to […]